Buildings lie in ruins in Aleppo on Sunday, January 19, after reported air raids by Syrian government planes. The United Nations estimates more than 100,000 people have been killed since the Syrian conflict began in March 2011. Click through to see the most compelling images taken during the conflict, which is now a civil war: A Syrian child collects items from a garbage pile on Saturday, January 18, in Douma, northeast of the capital. A piece of exploded mortar lies in a street in Daraya, a city southwest of Damascus, on Friday, January 17. Residents search for survivors in Aleppo on Saturday, December 28, after what activists said were airstrikes by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad. A man appears distraught after an air raid in Aleppo on Monday, December 23. Free Syrian Army fighters sit in a damaged house in Old Aleppo on Saturday, December 21. People search for survivors amid the rubble after an airstrike in Aleppo on Tuesday, December 17. A man sits on the ground after the airstrike in Aleppo on December 17. A woman carries children following airstrikes on a rebel area of Aleppo on Sunday, December 15. Syrians look at the aftermath of an airstrike on a rebel area of Aleppo on December 15. Syrians help a wounded woman following airstrikes in Aleppo on December 15. Syrians look at the aftermath of an airstrike on a rebel area of Aleppo on December 15. Syrian rebel fighters clash with pro-government forces in Aleppo on Wednesday, December 11. A woman weeps inside a damaged vehicle after forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad captured the town of Nabak on Monday, December 9. A rebel fighter takes position during fighting with government forces in Deir Ezzor on Monday, December 2. Shiite fighters from a group called the Hussein Brigade search for rebels from the Free Syrian Army in Hejeira on Thursday, November 21. Free Syrian Army rebels battle government forces in Aleppo on Monday, November 18. A rebel fighter holds his position in a damaged building during clashes with government forces in Deir Ezzor on Monday, November 11. A rebel fighter fires during clashes with government forces in Deir Ezzor on November 11. A rebel fighter prepares an improvised mortar shell in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, November 9. Two injured men are transported on a cart in Aleppo, Syria, following shelling as fighting between pro-government forces and rebels continues on Saturday, October 26. Rebel fighters hold a position in Deir Ezzor, Syria, on Thursday, October 24. An opposition fighter stands in the doorway of a building as he smokes a cigarette in Deir Ezzor, Syria, on Tuesday, October 22. People use buckets as they try to extinguish a fire that ignited at a fuel station in Aleppo, Syria, on Sunday, October 20. A Syrian opposition fighter aims a catapult toward regime forces in Aleppo, Syria, on Thursday, October 17. Firefighters extinguish a burning vehicle after two mortar rounds struck the Abu Roumaneh area in Damascus, Syria, on Saturday, October 12. An opposition fighter aims as others run for cover while they hold a position behind burning tires in the Salaheddin district of the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Wednesday, October 9. An opposition fighter smokes a cigarette as he takes a break following the injury of his friend in the Salaheddin neighborhood of Aleppo on October 9. Smoke rises after a mortar shell hit a residential area during fighting between Syrian government forces and rebels in Maaret al-Numan, Syria, on October, 9. Rebel fighters cover a car in mud for camouflage at an undisclosed location in Syria's northwestern province of Idlib on Tuesday, October 8. Masked female rebel fighters walk alongside their trainer on a street in the Salaheddin district of Aleppo, Syria, on October 8. A rebel fighter prays moments before heading into battle in Maaret al-Numan, Syria, on Monday, October 7. A mother comforts her baby in an area where she and her family have taken shelter after fleeing their village turned battlefield in Syria's Idlib province on Sunday, September 22. A man checks an AK-47 at his gun shop in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, September 21. Free Syrian Army fighters take cover moments after firing a rocket toward government forces in the Idlib province of northern Syria on Friday, September 20. Rebel fighters inspect a stairwell amid fighting against Syrian government forces on Thursday, September 19, in the Saif al-Dawla district of Aleppo, Syria. A Syrian child sits in a village in the Idlib province countryside on Septeptember 19. Opposition fighters react after returning from the battlefield in the Idlib province countryside on September 19. Smoke rises after a bomb was thrown from a helicopter, hitting a rebel position during heavy fighting between troops loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and opposition fighters in the Idlib province on September 19. Rebel fighters duck behind a barricade from firing in Aleppo on Wednesday, September 18. AFP reporter Sammy Ketz hits the ground as a Syrian soldier runs past during sniper fire in Maalula on September 18. Ketz and a photographer were reporting on the ancient Christian Syrian town northeast of Damascus. A Syrian opposition fighter takes a break on a mountain near a rebel camp in Idlib province on September 18. A Free Syrian Army fighter rests inside a cave at a rebel camp in Idlib province on Tuesday, September 17. Volunteers wear protective gear to show a class how to respond to a chemical attack in Aleppo, Syria, on September 15. For two months, Mohammad Zayed, an Aleppo University student, has been training a group of 26 civilians to respond to a chemical attack. Syria's pro-Assad militia rest near Maalula, Syria, on Friday, September 13. Syrian soldiers take aim at rebel fighters positioned in the mountains of the Christian town of Maalula on September 13. Rebels parade at a former military academy north of Aleppo during a September 13 ceremony to mark an agreement to unite two rebel brigade forces. A fighter of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command squats next to the covered body of an alleged foreign rebel fighter in the Yarmouk refugee camp in the Syrian capital of Damascus on Thursday, September 12. An opposition fighter runs in front of a sniper curtain in the industrial area of Deir Ezzor, Syria, during clashes with regime forces on September 12. A sheet hangs across an alley way to shield fighters from sniper fire as a fighter of the Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine General Command walks past destroyed buildings in the Yarmouk refugee camp in Damascus, Syria, on September 12. A Free Syrian Army fighter stands guard inside a damaged house in Aleppo's Qastal al-Harami neighborhood on September 11. Free Syrian Army fighters climb a flight of stairs to take positions near the Hanano barracks on September 11. A Syrian government tank is seen during clashes with Free Syrian Army fighters in Maaloula, Syria, on September 11. A funeral is held on September 11 for three Christian Syrians killed during battles with an al Qaeda-linked rebel group that took control of the historic Christian town of Maaloula from regime forces during the weekend. A man walks through a destroyed residential area of Saraqib, Syria, on Monday, September 9, following repeated airstrikes by government forces. A soldier wears a picture of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on his chest while at a market in old Damascus on September 8. A Free Syrian Army fighter prays in a trench in the Damascus suburbs on September 8. A Free Syrian Army fighter takes up a shooting position in Aleppo on September 8. A Free Syrian Army fighter runs for cover in Raqqa province on September 8. Buildings are heavily damaged in the Salah al-Din area of Aleppo on September 8. A boy named Issa, 10, carries a mortar shell in a weapons factory of the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on Saturday, September 7. The boy works with his father in the factory. Issa fixes a mortar launcher in the Aleppo weapons factory on September 7. A bedroom lies in ruins after clashes between government forces and rebels around Ariha on September 7. Syrian forces are seen in the Syrian Christian town of Maaloula on September 7. A Syrian soldier prepares large-caliber bullets for a machine gun in Maaloula on September 7. A man stands inside a home damaged by heavy shelling in Arbeen, a suburb of Damascus, Syria, on September 7. Men gather on the remains of a destroyed building after reported airstrikes by Syrian government forces in the rebel-held northwestern Syrian province of Idlib on Thursday, September 5. A Free Syrian Army fighter takes cover as he watches forces loyal to President Bashar al-Assad near Hanano barracks in Aleppo on September 3. Free Syrian Army fighters walk inside a damaged house in Aleppo on September 3. Free Syrian Army fighters talk inside a burnt house in Aleppo on September 3. A Free Syrian Army fighter peeks through the curtains of a bedroom in Deir ez-Zor, Syria, on Monday, September 2. Free Syrian Army fighters take their positions behind piled sandbags, as one of them points his weapon, in Deir ez-Zor on September 2. A rebel fighter points his weapon at Syrian regime forces in Deir ez-Zor on September 2. Syrian firefighters try to extinguish a fire after a missile hit a residential building in Damascus, Syria, on September 2. A U.N. arms expert collects samples during an inspection of a suspected chemical weapons strike site in the Ghouta area outside Damascus on August 29. People search for belongings in rubble in Raqqa, Syria, on August 29. Free Syrian Army fighters launch a rocket toward forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Deir Ezzor on August 29. A Syrian Kurd uses hay to hide another woman in a training session organized by the Kurdish Women's Defense Units on Wednesday, August 28, in a northern Syrian border village. They're preparing if the area comes under attack. Free Syrian Army fighters escort U.N. vehicles with chemical weapons experts on August 28 through a site of a suspected chemical weapons attack outside Damascus. A Free Syrian Army fighter takes position behind sandbags in the old city of Aleppo, Syria, on Tuesday, August 27. A U.N. team leaves its Damascus, Syria, hotel in a convoy on Monday, August 26. The team was to investigate an alleged chemical attack that killed hundreds last week in a suburb of the Syrian capital. Sniper fire hit a vehicle used by the U.N. chemical weapons investigation team multiple times Monday, according to the United Nations. A Syrian soldier walks down a street in Damascus on Saturday, August 24. Pigeons lie dead on the ground on August 24 from after what activists say is the use of chemical weapons by government forces in the Damascus suburb of Arbeen. Columns of smoke rise in Barzeh after heavy shelling on Friday, August 23. A young Free Syrian Army fighter is reflected in a mirror as he takes position in a house in Aleppo on Thursday, August 22. Rebels move around a building in Aleppo on August 22. Syrian rebels claim pro-government forces used chemical weapons to kill citizens outside Damascus on Wednesday, August 21. People inspect bodies in this photo released by the Syrian opposition Shaam News Network. People search the rubble of a bombed building in Aleppo, Syria, on Friday, August 16. Men bury the bodies of six members of the same family killed in a bombing in Raqqa on Saturday, August 10. Syrian Army soldiers patrol a devastated street in Homs on Wednesday, July 31. Free Syrian Army fighters move through a hole in a wall in Khan al-Assal on Monday, July 22, after seizing the town. A rebel fighter walks past swings in a deserted playground in Deir al-Zor, Syria, on Sunday, July 21. A rebel fighter speaks with a fellow fighter through a hole in a wall in Deir al-Zor on July 21. A Free Syrian Army fighter casts a shadow on a wall as he carries his weapon in a shelter in Deir al-Zor on Thursday, July 18. Yahya Sweed, 13, is comforted by his father as he lies on a bed in Kfar Nubul on Tuesday, July 16. The boy was injured by shrapnel, resulting in the amputation of his right leg. A rebel fighter naps in a trench about 300 feet from the Syrian government forces' positions along the highway connecting Idlib with Latakia on Monday, July 15. A rebel fighter uses a hole in the wall of a destroyed school to aim at Syrian government forces in the Izaa district of Aleppo on Sunday, July 14. A Free Syrian Army fighter uses a mirror to scope out snipers loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on Friday, July 12. A Free Syrian Army fighter stands over a boy who was injured during shelling in Al-Bara on Monday, July 8. Members of the Free Syrian Army fire a homemade rocket toward regime forces in Deir al-Zor on Sunday, June 16. Syrian rebels leave their position in the northwestern town of Maaret al-Numan on Thursday, June 13. The White House said that the Syrian government has crossed a "red line" with its use of chemical weapons and announced it would start arming the rebels. Forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad are seen near Qusayr on Thursday, May 30. Syrian rebels take position in a house during clashes with regime forces in the old city of Aleppo on May 22. Syrian army soldiers take control of the village of Western Dumayna north of the rebel-held city of Qusayr on Monday, May 13. Syrian troops captured three villages in Homs province, allowing them to cut supply lines to rebels inside Qusayr town, a military officer told AFP. Rebel fighters fire at government forces in the northern Syrian city of Aleppo on Sunday, May 12. Searchers use a flashlight as they look for survivors among the rubble created by what activists say was a missile attack from the Syrian regime, in Raqqa province, Syria, on April 25. A Kurdish fighter from the "Popular Protection Units" (YPG) takes position inside a building in the majority-Kurdish Sheikh Maqsood area of Aleppo, on Apri. 21. People walk past destroyed houses in the northern Syrian town of Azaz on Sunday, April 21. Free Syrian Army fighters take positions prior to an offensive against government forces in the Khan al-Assal area, near Aleppo on Saturday, April 20. Men inspect damage at a house destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo on April 15. Syrian and Kurdish rebel fighters walk in the Sheikh Maqsud district of Aleppo on April 14. A female rebel monitors the movement of Syrian government forces in Aleppo's Sheikh Maqsud neighborhood on Thursday, April 11. A rebel runs to avoid sniper fire from Syrian government forces in Aleppo on April 11. Syrian rebels observe the movement of Syrian government forces around Al-Kendi hospital in Aleppo on Wednesday, April 10. Rescue teams and security forces check out the scene of a deadly car bomb explosion in Damascus on April 8. The fighting has taken a toll on buildings in Aleppo's Saladin district, seen here on April 8. A Syrian rebel runs for cover in Deir ez-Zor on April 2. A rebel checks for snipers across the street toward the Citadel in Aleppo, Syria, on Saturday, March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper. A Free Syrian fighter mourns the death of a friend in Aleppo on March 30, in this photo taken by iReporter Lee Harper. A Syrian opposition fighter runs for cover from Syrian army snipers in Aleppo on Wednesday, March 27. A Syrian girl covers her face to protect herself from fumes as a street covered with uncollected garbage is fumigated in Aleppo on Sunday, March 24. A Syrian man and his family drive past damaged buildings in Maarat al-Numan, on Wednesday, March 20. Syrians carry the body of a Syrian army soldier during a funeral ceremony in Idlib province on Tuesday, March 19. Syrian rebels take position in Aleppo, the largest city in the country, on March 11. Syrian men search for their relatives amongst the bodies of civilians executed and dumped in the Quweiq River on March 11. A Free Syrian Army fighter looks back as smoke rises during fighting between rebel fighters and forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad on the outskirts of Aleppo on Saturday, March 2. Residents read Shaam News newspapers published by the Free Syrian Army in Aleppo on March 2. A member of the Free Syrian Army reacts to the death of a comrade who was killed in fighting, at Bustan al Qasr cemetery in Aleppo on Friday, March 1. A rebel fighter throws a home-made grenade at Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 16. A member of the Free Syrian Army stands with his weapon as he looks at a rainbow in Aleppo on February 16. A Syrian woman looks through a bus window in Aleppo on February 14. Free Syrian Army fighters walk through a dust-filled stairwell in Damascus on February 7. A Syrian rebel gestures at comrades from inside a broken armored personnel carrier in Al-Yaqubia on February 6. A rebel fighter throws a hand grenade inside a Syrian Army base in Damascus on February 3. People stand in the dust of a building destroyed in an airstrike in Aleppo, Syria on February 3. Free Syrian Army fighters run as they enter a Syrian Army base during heavy fighting in the Arabeen neighborhood of Damascus on February 3. An unexploded mortar shell fired by the Syrian Army sits lodged in the ground in Damascus on January 25. Fighters from Fateh al Sham unit of the Free Syrian Army fire on Syrian Army soldiers at a check point in Damascus on January 20. A Free Syrian Army fighter walks between buildings damaged during Syrian Air Force strikes in Damascus on January 19. A Syrian rebel fighter tries to locate a government jet fighter in Aleppo on January 18. Syrian rebels launch a missile near the Abu Baker brigade in Albab on January 16. A Syrian boy walks near rubbish next to tents at a refugee camp near the northern city of Azaz on the Syria-Turkey border, on January 8. Syrians look for survivors amid the rubble of a building targeted by a missile in Aleppo on January 7. A father reacts after hearing of a shelling by forces loyal to Syria's President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on January 3. A patient smokes a cigarette at Dar Al-Ajaza psychiatric hospital in Aleppo on December 18, 2012. The psychiatric ward, housing around 60 patients, has lacked the means to function properly since fighting broke out there in July. Syrians mourn a fallen rebel fighter at a rebel base in the al-Fardos area of Aleppo on December 8, 2012. Members of Liwa (Brigade) Salahadin, a Kurdish military unit fighting alongside rebel fighters, monitor the area in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6, 2012. A member of Liwa Salahadin aims at a regime fighter in the besieged district of Karmel al-Jabl in Aleppo on December 6, 2012. Two young boys sit underneath a washline in a refugee camp on the border between Syria and Turkey near Azaz on December 5, 2012. The bodies of three children, who were allegedly killed in a mortar shell attack that landed close to a bakery in Aleppo, on December 2, 2012, are laid out for identification by family members at a makeshift hospital at an undisclosed location of the city. Smoke rises in the Hanano and Bustan al-Basha districts in Aleppo on December 1, 2012 as fighting continues through the night. Damaged houses in Aleppo are seen after an airstrike on November 29, 2012. A Syrian rebel mourns the death of a comrade in Maraat al-Numan on November 20, 2012. Syrians protesters stand on Assad's portrait during an anti-regime demonstration in Aleppo on November 16, 2012. A Syrian rebel takes cover during fighting against Syrian government forces in Aleppo on November 15, 2012. Syrian opposition fighter Bazel Araj, 19, sleeps next to his pistol in Aleppo on November 11, 2012. A rebel fighter fires at a Syrian government position in Aleppo on November 6, 2012. A Syrian rebel leaps over debris left in the street while running across a "sniper alley" near the Salahudeen district in Aleppo on November 4, 2012. Rebels hold their position in the midst of a battle on November 3, 2012 in Aleppo. A man cries while being treated in a local hospital in a rebel-controlled area of Aleppo on October 31, 2012. A man is treated for wounds after a government jet attacked the Karm al-Aser neighborhood in eastern Aleppo on October 31, 2012. A Syrian rebel interrogates a handcuffed and blindfolded man suspected of being a pro-regime militiaman in Aleppo on October 26, 2012. Smoke rises from a fuel station following a mortar attack as Syrian women walk on a rainy day in the Arqub neighborhood of Aleppo on October 25, 2012. A Syrian rebel fires at an army position in the Karm al-Jabal district of Aleppo on October 22, 2012. A wounded Syrian boy sits on the back of a truck carrying victims and wounded people to a hospital following an attack by regime forces in Aleppo on October 21, 2012. A man lies on the ground after being shot by a sniper for a second time as he waits to be rescued by members of the Al-Baraa Bin Malek Battalion, part of the Free Syria Army's Al-Fatah brigade, in Aleppo on October 20, 2012. Syrian army soldiers run for cover during clashes with rebel fighters at Karam al-Jabal neighborhood of Aleppo on October 20, 2012. Smoke rises after a Syrian Air Force fighter jet fired missiles at the suburbs of the northern province of Idlib on October 16, 2012. A Syrian opposition fighter stands near a post in Aleppo on October 11, 2012. A Syrian man mourns the death of his father, who was killed during a government attack in Aleppo on October 10, 2012. A rebel fighter is carried by his friends and laid on a gurney to be treated for gunshot wounds sustained during heavy battles with government forces in Aleppo on October 1, 2012. Syrian rebels help a wounded comrade to an Aleppo hospital after he was injured in a Syrian army strike on September 18, 2012. Free Syria Army fighters are reflected in a mirror they use to see a Syrian Army post only 50 meters away in Aleppo on September 16, 2012. A Syrian man carrying grocery bags tries to dodge sniper fire as he runs through an alley near a checkpoint manned by the Free Syria Army in Aleppo on September 14, 2012. A woman walks past a destroyed building in Aleppo on September 13, 2012. Free Syrian Army fighters battle during street fighting against Syrian army soldiers in Aleppo on September 8, 2012. A Syrian man wounded by shelling sits on a chair outside a closed shop in Aleppo on September 4, 2012. A woman sits in her wheelchair next to her house, damaged by a Syrian air raid, near Homs on August 26, 2012. Members of the Free Syrian Army clash with Syrian army soliders in Aleppo's Saif al-Dawla district on August 22, 2012. A man mourns in front of a field hospital on August 21, 2012 in Aleppo. Wounded civilians wait in a field hospital after an air strike on August 21, 2012 in Aleppo. People pray during the funeral of a Free Syrian Army fighter, Amar Ali Amero, on August 21, 2012. A man cries near the graves of his two children killed during a recent Syrian airstrike in Azaz on August 20, 2012. A Syrian woman holds her dead baby as she screams upon seeing her husband's body being covered following an airstrike by regime forces on the town of Azaz on August 15, 2012. A Syrian rebel runs in a street of Selehattin during an attack on the municipal building on July 23, 2012. Syrian rebels hunt for snipers after attacking the municipality building in the city center of Selehattin on July 23, 2012. Members of the Free Syrian Army's Mugaweer (commandos) Brigade pay their respects in a cemetery on May 12, 2012 in Qusayr. Syrian rebels take position near Qusayr on May 10, 2012. A Free Syrian Army member takes cover in underground caves in Sarmin on April 9, 2012. Rebels prepare to engage government tanks that advanced into Saraquib on April 9, 2012. Men say prayers during a ceremony in Binnish on April 9, 2012. A young boy plays with a toy gun in Binnish on April 9, 2012. A Free Syrian Army rebel mounts his horse in the Al-Shatouria village near the Turkish border in northwestern Syria on March 16, 2012, a year after the uprising began. Syrian refugees walk across a field before crossing into Turkey on March 14, 2012. A rebel takes position in Al-Qsair on January 27, 2012. A protester in Homs throws a tear gas bomb back towards security forces, on December 27, 2011. A man stands under a giant Syrian flag outside the Umayyad Mosque in Damascus on December 24, 2011. A member of the Free Syrian Army looks out over a valley in the village of Ain al-Baida on December 15, 2011. Members of the Free Syrian Army stand in an valley near the village of Ain al-Baida, close to the Turkish border, on December 15, 2011. Displaced Syrian refugees walk through an orchard adjacent to Syria's northern border with Turkey on June 14, 2011, near Khirbet al-Jouz. A Syrian man holds up a portrait of President Bashar al-Assad during a rally to show support for the president in Damascus on April 30, 2011. Syrians rally to show their support for President Bashar al-Assad in Damascus on April 30, 2011. A screen grab from YouTube shows thick smoke rising above as Syrian anti-government protesters demonstrate in Moaret Al-Noman on April 29, 2011. A screen grab from YouTube shows Syrian anti-government protesters run for cover from tear gas fired by security forces in Damascus on April 29, 2011, during the "Day of Rage" demonstrations called by activists to put pressure on al-Assad. A woman sits by the hospital bed of a man allegedly injured when an armed group seized rooftops in Latakia on March 27, 2011, and opened fire at passers-by, citizens and security forces personnel according to official sources. Syrians wave their national flag and hold portraits of al-Assad during a rally to show their support for their leader in Damascus on March 29, 2011. Syrian protesters chant slogans in support of al-Assad during a rally in Damascus on March 25, 2011.
- Aaron Miller: Even if Geneva talks fail, U.S. shouldn't intervene in Syria conflict
- Syria is a tragedy but Obama has followed the right course, Miller says
- He says president has rightly concluded that U.S. can't resolve the conflict
- Miller: Preventing a war over Iran's nuclear program is a higher priority for U.S.
Editor's note: Aaron David Miller is a vice president and distinguished scholar at the Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars and was a Middle East negotiator in Democratic and Republican administrations. Follow him on Twitter.
(CNN) -- The likely failure of Friday's Geneva 2 conference to produce a credible political process to end Syria's civil war points up the painfully obvious: Syria -- a conflict seemingly without end -- is a moral, humanitarian and strategic tragedy.
But it is neither an American tragedy nor the Obama administration's fault nor responsibility.
This does not mean the United States is free to ignore the Syrian conflict; nor that its continuation doesn't negatively affect American interests.
What it does mean is that the President's risk-averse policy -- containment, humanitarian assistance, helping to organize and supply certain rebel groups, and keeping open the possibility of a political track -- is absolutely right. The administration should continue to ignore its critics' call for a more assertive policy, particularly if after a failed Geneva conference, there are calls for military action. Here's why:
We can't fix Syria
With 130,000-plus dead, thousands more wounded, a traumatized nation, and the social fabric of its society in shreds, Syria is beyond immediate repair or rescue. Short of a major international military intervention, followed by a massive humanitarian and reconstruction effort in the billions and thousands of peacekeepers whose stay would be measured in years not months, the Syrian conflict will go on.
The notion that America can now intercede -- or at any point in the past three years, could have intervened -- in a way that would have stabilized the situation, let alone put Syria back together in some new form, is an illusion.
Inside Syria's most dangerous town Al-Assad adviser: People decide who rules Turkey to Assad: participate or face ICC With 140,000 U.S. forces in Afghanistan and Iraq and trillions expended over a decade, we have not been able to fundamentally alter the politics of either nation in a way that promises security or good governance.
In Egypt, where the United States supposedly had leverage from $1.3 billion in military assistance over its closest Arab partner, Washington has been unable to alter the course of Egypt's politics and has become the object of antipathy by almost every faction in the country.
These failures have little to do with U.S. policy, and much more to do with the reality that America doesn't control the world and cannot dictate to societies composed of corporatist, religious and tribal elements who have their own interests and vision. To think we could dictate, let alone significantly influence Syria -- the poster child for sectarian and ethnic conflict and regional intervention -- is sheer folly.
We can't even help the Syrians fix Syria
The notion that in 2011, the United States had a major opportunity to avoid the current situation, pre-empt the radicalization of the country through an infusion of jihadi groups, and unify a secular or moderate Islamist opposition is also illusory.
Had the Obama administration been willing to supply a vetted opposition with sophisticated weaponry, including shoulder launched ground to air missiles, sophisticated anti-tank weaponry, and been willing to neutralize President Bashar al-Assad's air force through offensive no-fly zones, there would still have been no guarantees that a divisive and inchoate opposition could have remained unified and effective.
Even military strikes in the wake of Syria's use of chemical weapons would likely have had to have been followed by a sustained military campaign of some kind. And nobody in the administration, least of all Obama, was prepared to embark on such an open-ended military campaign (for which the American people have shown no appetite). At the end of the day, such an effort would still not have answered the question: Who or what would have been able to hold the country together, stop the vendettas, police the borders and intervene to stop the inexorable struggle for control between Sunnis and Alawis?
Military intervention was always a trap
The liberal interventionists and neoconservatives who have accused the administration of failing to lead never laid out an effective case as to what the relationship between U.S. military action and the political end state in Syria would be.
The Iraq/Afghanistan wars are a false analogy. Nobody was talking U.S. boots on the ground in Syria. Instead the correct analogy from the two longest and among the most profitless wars in U.S. history was how precisely military action was going to achieve the objective of a stable, pluralist Syria in an Arab neighborhood in which there is not one example of such a state.
President Obama was right to resist the use of force and will be right again, if in the wake of Geneva's failure there is more talk of resorting to force. The horrific revelations of mass executions will only strengthen the arguments of those who see U.S. military intervention as the only recourse. Still, the last thing the United States needs right now is a proxy war with Iran, Hezbollah and Russia in a neighborhood where they have distinct advantages.
Iran is the priority
Governing is about choosing. And the president clearly made a choice that preserving the possibility of a deal with Iran on the nuclear issue was much more important than involving the United States in a war with Tehran over Syria that Washington could never win.
There's no evidence to support this, but I have a strong suspicion that the decision not to respond to Syria's use of chemical weapons with military force was partly shaped by this calculation, particularly the possibility that U.S. military action might have killed Iranian forces in Syria, or to be sure increased not ameliorated tensions at a time the administration was already involved in secret talks with the mullahs who control Iran.
There is no foreign policy priority more important to the Obama administration right now than getting an agreement with Iran on the nuclear issue that would prevent an Israeli military strike and make an American one unnecessary.
The conventional wisdom is that a proxy war with Iran in Syria would have weakened the mullahs. But it could easily have led to the opposite reaction -- increasing Iran's sense of encirclement and an acceleration of its nuclear program.
Amoral but not immoral
Syria isn't Rwanda or the Nazi Holocaust. But it is an arena where mass killings and war crimes by the regime in particular, but also by its opponents, take place routinely. The Obama administration, particularly Secretary of State John Kerry, feels deeply about this. But not so deeply that it's prepared to intervene.
That reluctance to intervene militarily reflects a policy that isn't immoral. America has been more active than any other nation in providing humanitarian assistance and helping organize the Syrian opposition. If any kind of sustainable local ceasefires emerge from the Geneva process, the United States will have done much to better a horrible situation. But it is an amoral approach where moral considerations do not dictate.
That is to say what drives U.S. policy in the main isn't moral or ethical; instead it is shaped by a variety of other factors, including the public's opposition to military intervention, the President's own priorities for his legacy (the middle class, not the Middle East) Iran and a general sense that the last thing this country needs is another major foreign policy failure or obligation.
As a result, the administration has rightly pursued a course that is risk-averse, not risk-ready; one that understands that it cannot act alone and that even multilateral action will only have limited results, and above all, one that recognizes that there are no solutions to Syria right now, only outcomes. It's certainly not a morally or emotionally satisfying course of action. But it is the right one.
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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Aaron David Miller.
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