Thursday, 20 March 2014

What it means if 'objects' are Flight 370






Satellite imagery provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority on Thursday, March 20, shows debris in the southern Indian Ocean that could be from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. The Boeing 777-200ER disappeared during a March 8 flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Searchers from 26 countries are trying to pinpoint its location somewhere along two vast arcs, one stretching deep into the Asian landmass, the other far out into the Indian Ocean.Satellite imagery provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority on Thursday, March 20, shows debris in the southern Indian Ocean that could be from missing Malaysia Airlines Flight 370. The Boeing 777-200ER disappeared during a March 8 flight from Kuala Lumpur to Beijing. Searchers from 26 countries are trying to pinpoint its location somewhere along two vast arcs, one stretching deep into the Asian landmass, the other far out into the Indian Ocean.

A closer look at the satellite shot of possible debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.A closer look at the satellite shot of possible debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

Another satellite shot provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority on March 20 shows possible debris from the flight estimated to be approximately 5 meters (16 feet) across.Another satellite shot provided by the Australian Maritime Safety Authority on March 20 shows possible debris from the flight estimated to be approximately 5 meters (16 feet) across.

A closer look at the satellite shot of possible debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.A closer look at the satellite shot of possible debris from Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

The Australian Maritime Safety Authority's John Young speaks to the media in Canberra, Australia, on March 20 about satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search for the Malaysian Airlines flight.The Australian Maritime Safety Authority's John Young speaks to the media in Canberra, Australia, on March 20 about satellite imagery of objects possibly related to the search for the Malaysian Airlines flight.

A distraught relative of a passenger on the missing Malaysia Airlines jet breaks down while talking to reporters at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia, on Wednesday, March 19.A distraught relative of a passenger on the missing Malaysia Airlines jet breaks down while talking to reporters at Kuala Lumpur International Airport in Sepang, Malaysia, on Wednesday, March 19.

A relative of Chinese passengers aboard the missing plane waits for a news briefing by officials in Beijing on Tuesday, March 18.A relative of Chinese passengers aboard the missing plane waits for a news briefing by officials in Beijing on Tuesday, March 18.

A relative of a Chinese passenger aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 tells reporters in Beijing on March 18 about a hunger strike to protest authorities' handling of information about the missing jet.A relative of a Chinese passenger aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 tells reporters in Beijing on March 18 about a hunger strike to protest authorities' handling of information about the missing jet.

A member of Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency joins in a search for the missing plane in the Andaman <!-- --> </br>Sea area around the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra on Monday, March 17.A member of Indonesia's National Search and Rescue Agency joins in a search for the missing plane in the Andaman Sea area around the northern tip of Indonesia's Sumatra on Monday, March 17.

Relatives of passengers aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 watch a news program about the missing plane as they await information at a hotel ballroom in Beijing on March 17.Relatives of passengers aboard Malaysia Airlines Flight 370 watch a news program about the missing plane as they await information at a hotel ballroom in Beijing on March 17.

Malaysian Transportation Minister Hishamuddin Hussein, center, shows maps of the search area at a hotel next to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 17. Malaysian Transportation Minister Hishamuddin Hussein, center, shows maps of the search area at a hotel next to the Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 17.

U.S. Navy crew members assist in search-and-rescue operations Sunday, March 16, in the Indian Ocean.U.S. Navy crew members assist in search-and-rescue operations Sunday, March 16, in the Indian Ocean.

Indonesian personnel watch over high seas during a search operation in the Andaman Sea on Saturday, March 15.Indonesian personnel watch over high seas during a search operation in the Andaman Sea on Saturday, March 15.

A foam plane, which has personalized messages for the missing flight's passengers, is seen at a viewing gallery March 15 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.A foam plane, which has personalized messages for the missing flight's passengers, is seen at a viewing gallery March 15 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.

A member of the Malaysian navy makes a call as his ship approaches a Chinese coast guard ship in the South China Sea on March 15.A member of the Malaysian navy makes a call as his ship approaches a Chinese coast guard ship in the South China Sea on March 15.

A Indonesian ship heads to the Andaman Sea during a search operation near the tip of Sumatra, Indonesia, on March 15.A Indonesian ship heads to the Andaman Sea during a search operation near the tip of Sumatra, Indonesia, on March 15.

Elementary school students pray for the missing passengers during class in Medan, Indonesia, on March 15.Elementary school students pray for the missing passengers during class in Medan, Indonesia, on March 15.

Col. Vu Duc Long of the Vietnam air force fields reporters' questions at an air base in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, after a search operation on Friday, March 14.Col. Vu Duc Long of the Vietnam air force fields reporters' questions at an air base in Ho Chi Minh City, Vietnam, after a search operation on Friday, March 14.

Members of the Chinese navy continue search operations on Thursday, March 13. The search area for Flight 370 has grown wider. After starting in the sea between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane's last confirmed location, efforts are expanding west into the Indian Ocean.Members of the Chinese navy continue search operations on Thursday, March 13. The search area for Flight 370 has grown wider. After starting in the sea between Malaysia and Vietnam, the plane's last confirmed location, efforts are expanding west into the Indian Ocean.

A Vietnamese military official looks out an aircraft window during search operations March 13.A Vietnamese military official looks out an aircraft window during search operations March 13.

Malaysian air force members look for debris on March 13 near Kuala Lumpur.Malaysian air force members look for debris on March 13 near Kuala Lumpur.

A relative of a missing passenger watches TV at a Beijing hotel as she waits for the latest news March 13.A relative of a missing passenger watches TV at a Beijing hotel as she waits for the latest news March 13.

A member of the Indonesian National Search and Rescue Agency scans the horizon in the Strait of Malacca on Wednesday, March 12.A member of the Indonesian National Search and Rescue Agency scans the horizon in the Strait of Malacca on Wednesday, March 12.

Relatives of missing passengers wait for the latest news at a hotel in Beijing on March 12.Relatives of missing passengers wait for the latest news at a hotel in Beijing on March 12.

Journalists raise their hands to ask questions during a news conference in Sepang on March 12.Journalists raise their hands to ask questions during a news conference in Sepang on March 12.

Indonesian air force officers in Medan, Indonesia, examine a map of the Strait of Malacca on March 12.Indonesian air force officers in Medan, Indonesia, examine a map of the Strait of Malacca on March 12.

A member of the Vietnamese air force checks a map while searching for the missing plane on Tuesday, March 11.A member of the Vietnamese air force checks a map while searching for the missing plane on Tuesday, March 11.

Iranians Pouri Nourmohammadi, second left, and Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza, far right, were identified by Interpol as the two men who used stolen passports to board the flight. But there's no evidence to suggest either was connected to any terrorist organizations, according to Malaysian investigators. Malaysian police believe Nourmohammadi was trying to emigrate to Germany using the stolen Austrian passport.Iranians Pouri Nourmohammadi, second left, and Delavar Seyed Mohammad Reza, far right, were identified by Interpol as the two men who used stolen passports to board the flight. But there's no evidence to suggest either was connected to any terrorist organizations, according to Malaysian investigators. Malaysian police believe Nourmohammadi was trying to emigrate to Germany using the stolen Austrian passport.

An Indonesian navy crew member scans an area of the South China Sea bordering Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand on Monday, March 10.An Indonesian navy crew member scans an area of the South China Sea bordering Indonesia, Malaysia and Thailand on Monday, March 10.

Vietnam air force Col. Le Huu Hanh is reflected on the navigation control panel of a plane that is part of the search operation over the South China Sea on March 10.Vietnam air force Col. Le Huu Hanh is reflected on the navigation control panel of a plane that is part of the search operation over the South China Sea on March 10.

Relatives of the missing flight's passengers wait in a Beijing hotel room on March 10.Relatives of the missing flight's passengers wait in a Beijing hotel room on March 10.

A U.S. Navy Seahawk helicopter lands aboard the USS Pinckney to change crews before returning to search for the missing plane Sunday, March 9, in the Gulf of Thailand.A U.S. Navy Seahawk helicopter lands aboard the USS Pinckney to change crews before returning to search for the missing plane Sunday, March 9, in the Gulf of Thailand.

Members of the Fo Guang Shan rescue team offer a special prayer March 9 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.Members of the Fo Guang Shan rescue team offer a special prayer March 9 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.

A handout picture provided by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency shows personnel checking a radar screen during search-and-rescue operations March 9.A handout picture provided by the Malaysian Maritime Enforcement Agency shows personnel checking a radar screen during search-and-rescue operations March 9.

Italian tourist Luigi Maraldi, who reported his passport stolen in August, shows his current passport during a news conference at a police station in Phuket island, Thailand, on March 9. Two passengers on the missing Malaysia Airlines flight were reportedly traveling on stolen passports belonging to Maraldi and an Austrian citizen whose papers were stolen two years ago.Italian tourist Luigi Maraldi, who reported his passport stolen in August, shows his current passport during a news conference at a police station in Phuket island, Thailand, on March 9. Two passengers on the missing Malaysia Airlines flight were reportedly traveling on stolen passports belonging to Maraldi and an Austrian citizen whose papers were stolen two years ago.

Hugh Dunleavy, commercial director of Malaysia Airlines, speaks to journalists March 9 at a Beijing hotel where relatives and friends of the missing flight's passengers are staying.Hugh Dunleavy, commercial director of Malaysia Airlines, speaks to journalists March 9 at a Beijing hotel where relatives and friends of the missing flight's passengers are staying.

Vietnamese air force crew stand in front of a plane at Tan Son Nhat airport in Ho Chi Minh City on March 9 before heading out to the area between Vietnam and Malaysia where the airliner vanished.Vietnamese air force crew stand in front of a plane at Tan Son Nhat airport in Ho Chi Minh City on March 9 before heading out to the area between Vietnam and Malaysia where the airliner vanished.

Buddhist monks at Kuala Lumpur International Airport offer a special prayer for the missing passengers on March 9.Buddhist monks at Kuala Lumpur International Airport offer a special prayer for the missing passengers on March 9.

The Chinese navy warship Jinggangshan prepares to leave Zhanjiang Port early on March 9 to assist in search-and-rescue operations for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight. The Jinggangshan, an amphibious landing ship, is loaded with lifesaving equipment, underwater detection devices and supplies of oil, water and food.The Chinese navy warship Jinggangshan prepares to leave Zhanjiang Port early on March 9 to assist in search-and-rescue operations for the missing Malaysia Airlines flight. The Jinggangshan, an amphibious landing ship, is loaded with lifesaving equipment, underwater detection devices and supplies of oil, water and food.

Members of a Chinese emergency response team board a rescue vessel at the port of Sanya in China's Hainan province on March 9. The vessel is carrying 12 divers and will rendezvous with another rescue vessel on its way to the area where contact was lost with Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.Members of a Chinese emergency response team board a rescue vessel at the port of Sanya in China's Hainan province on March 9. The vessel is carrying 12 divers and will rendezvous with another rescue vessel on its way to the area where contact was lost with Malaysia Airlines Flight 370.

The rescue vessel sets out from Sanya in the South China Sea.The rescue vessel sets out from Sanya in the South China Sea.

A family member of missing passengers is mobbed by journalists at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on Saturday, March 8.A family member of missing passengers is mobbed by journalists at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on Saturday, March 8.

A Vietnamese air force plane found traces of oil that authorities had suspected to be from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, the Vietnamese government online newspaper reported March 8. However, a sample from the slick showed it was bunker oil, typically used to power large cargo ships, Malaysia's state news agency, Bernama, reported on March 10.A Vietnamese air force plane found traces of oil that authorities had suspected to be from the missing Malaysia Airlines plane, the Vietnamese government online newspaper reported March 8. However, a sample from the slick showed it was bunker oil, typically used to power large cargo ships, Malaysia's state news agency, Bernama, reported on March 10.

Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, center, arrives to meet family members of missing passengers at the reception center at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8.Malaysian Prime Minister Najib Razak, center, arrives to meet family members of missing passengers at the reception center at Kuala Lumpur International Airport on March 8.

Malaysia Airlines official Joshua Law Kok Hwa, center, speaks to reporters in Beijing on March 8.Malaysia Airlines official Joshua Law Kok Hwa, center, speaks to reporters in Beijing on March 8.

A relative of two missing passengers reacts at their home in Kuala Lumpur on March 8.A relative of two missing passengers reacts at their home in Kuala Lumpur on March 8.

Wang Yue, director of marketing of Malaysia Airlines in China, reads a company statement during a news conference at the Metro Park Lido Hotel in Beijing on March 8. Wang Yue, director of marketing of Malaysia Airlines in China, reads a company statement during a news conference at the Metro Park Lido Hotel in Beijing on March 8.

Chinese police at the Beijing airport stand beside the arrival board showing delayed Flight 370 in red on March 8.Chinese police at the Beijing airport stand beside the arrival board showing delayed Flight 370 in red on March 8.

A woman asks a staff member at the Beijing airport for more information on the missing flight.A woman asks a staff member at the Beijing airport for more information on the missing flight.

A Malaysian man who says he has relatives on board the missing plane talks to journalists at the Beijing airport on March 8.A Malaysian man who says he has relatives on board the missing plane talks to journalists at the Beijing airport on March 8.

Passengers walk past a Malaysia Airlines sign on March 8 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.Passengers walk past a Malaysia Airlines sign on March 8 at Kuala Lumpur International Airport.

Malaysia Airlines Group CEO Ahmad Juahari Yahya, front, speaks during a news conference on March 8 at a hotel in Sepang. "We deeply regret that we have lost all contacts" with the jet, he said.Malaysia Airlines Group CEO Ahmad Juahari Yahya, front, speaks during a news conference on March 8 at a hotel in Sepang. "We deeply regret that we have lost all contacts" with the jet, he said.








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  • Robert Goyer: If objects spotted in Indian Ocean are Flight 370, it will offer clues to plane's fate

  • He says spot is nearly 4,000 miles from its westward turn, and straight shot south from turn

  • He says if it's 370, the location suggests it flew for hours on autopilot, then ran out of fuel

  • Goyer: If it crashed, how it did so could make a big difference in its eventual recovery




Editor's note: Robert Goyer is the editor-in-chief of Flying magazine and a commercial jet-rated pilot.


(CNN) -- There are new reports that an Australian government Orion P-3 surveillance plane has spotted objects afloat in the south Indian Ocean off the coast of Australia. At this early hour, some investigators think this may be from Malaysia Air Flight MH370.


If it really is the wreckage of the Boeing 777-200, its far southern location would provide investigators with precious clues into what terrible events unfolded to result in the disappearance and loss of the airliner carrying 239 people.


The location would suggest a few very important parameters. The spot where searchers have found hoped-for clues is, based on the location information provided by the Australian government, nearly 4,000 miles from where the airliner made its unexpected and as yet unexplained turn to the west.



Robert Goyer


Based on ambiguous but solid satellite evidence, investigators now believe the airplane, after its westward deviation, made a turn to the north or the south. They favor a southern path over the Indian Ocean because its remoteness would help explain the lack of radar or satellite sightings of the lost flight.


In addition to the 4,000-mile distance presumably flown, if it flew in a straight line -- a fair guess at this point -- the location is also due south from where the plane went missing, which might be another important clue.


If the suspicious objects spotted in the water turn out to be the wreckage of MH370, we will know a few things. Some of them may sound obvious, but remember -- investigators early on seemed to have missed some clues that should have been obvious, like the computer-inputted course the airplane likely took after it first diverged from its original flight plan.





Pros/Cons: Is debris part of Flight 370?




'No motive' in disappearance of airplane




Is THAT really the plane?

The first obvious clue is that the airplane flew for many hours. At a cruising speed of 600 mph, which is simply a ballpark guess at this point, it would have taken the 777 around six hours to reach the site in the Indian Ocean where the airplane would have crashed into the water. That is almost exactly the potential range of the flight that investigators have previously quoted.


The other clue the location provides is its due south direction from Malaysia, suggesting that the airplane flew without human direction to guide it to a safe landing site. At some point long before the presumed crash (again, still speculating here), it would have become impossible for the plane to reach land on the fuel that would have remained in its tanks.


While there are a small number of possible scenarios at play here, the most likely, it seems to me, is that the airplane was flying on autopilot without anyone at the controls and did so until it ran out of fuel and crashed into the ocean. The autopilot almost certainly would have remained working even after the plane ran out of fuel, though the dynamics of such a crash scenario are complex.


For example, would one engine have lost power before the other? And how the airplane crashed -- if that is what happened -- might make a big difference in its eventual recovery. The more controlled its impact with the water was, the more likely it would be that we could ultimately recover large sections of it from the deep ocean floor where, some investigators believe, it might lie.


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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Robert Goyer.



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