- Five states hold primaries on Tuesday
- In South Carolina, Sen. Lindsey Graham is hoping to avoid a runoff
- Graham faces a divided opposition in his primary bid
(CNN) -- Five states from Maine to Nevada hold primaries on Tuesday, but the marquee race is in South Carolina, where two-term GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham is hoping to avoid a runoff.
The Palmetto State showdown comes as fellow Republican Sen. Thad Cochran is fighting for his political life in Mississippi. Last week, he was forced into a runoff against a challenger backed by the tea party.
But for Graham, any comparison with Cochran is short lived even though many tea party activists and other grassroots conservatives in South Carolina despise him and other local organizations in the state have censured him in recent years.
Graham's opponents are divided and getting little help from powerful anti-establishment outside groups.
With the most recent poll indicating Graham close to the 50% threshold needed to avoid a runoff, he spent the day before the primary on a bus tour through the conservative, voter-rich upstate region.
In his final campaign commercial before the primary, Graham touted his conservative credentials, which he said included support for "building the Keystone pipeline, opposing Obamacare, looking for answers on Benghazi, standing up for our military."
And in the ad, which his campaign said was a six-figure statewide buy on TV, radio and digital, Graham said he is a "conservative leader you can count on to get things done."
Graham's fractured opposition
Graham faces off against six primary challengers. According to a Clemson University Palmetto poll released last week, 49% of likely South Carolina primary voters said they backed Graham, with state Sen. Lee Bright a distant second at 9%.
The other five challengers all registered in the low single digits. A high of 35% of respondents said they were undecided.
"I think all signs point to Graham avoiding a runoff, and that's happening for two reasons. One, because he's up against an incredibly weak field of competitors, and of course he benefits a bit by having the 'not Lindsey' vote split among several folks," South Carolina Republican consultant Joel Sawyer told CNN.
"Second, to Lindsey's credit, he's run a great campaign. I think the assumption among a lot of people was that he'd solely wage an air war, but I've been impressed with the way he's also run a traditional, grassroots-focused campaign in addition to a compelling broadcast message. And Lindsey himself has spent a lot of time on the ground here holding events and interacting one-on-one with voters."
Two other advantages for Graham: He has a massive war chest -- around $8 million cash on hand, which gave him a huge campaign cash advantage over his primary opponents -- and outside groups have steered clear of the race, unlike in Mississippi where establishment and tea party groups fought.
Sawyer added a third factor.
"His opposition is 'a mile deep but an inch wide.' People who don't like him really don't like him, but that sentiment is not particularly widespread," said Sawyer.
Graham debated his opponents for the first and only time this past weekend.
They slammed him over his 2008 vote in favor of the Wall Street bailout, his votes in favor of President Barack Obama's Supreme Court nominations, and especially for his support of immigration reform.
If there's a runoff
Without a competitive Republican gubernatorial primary on Tuesday, turnout in the GOP Senate showdown likely will be low. If no one cracks 50% of the vote, the first two finishers face off in a runoff in two weeks. If that happens, Graham will be considered the favorite.
"Number one: it's only two weeks," said South Carolina based GOP strategist Hogan Gidley, in listing reasons why Graham would be the odds-on-favorite in a runoff.
"Number two: we don't know if the second place finisher will be a viable alternative. "Number three: will that candidate have any money to spend against Graham?" Gidley said.
Democratic state Sen. Brad Hutto is considered the front runner for the Democratic Senate nomination. But in red-state South Carolina, the eventual Democratic nominee will be considered a very long shot to win November's general election.
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