2014 news: Hillary Clinton's fall to-do list

Sunday 21 September 2014

Hillary Clinton's fall to-do list

Hillary Clinton has her work cut out for her

She must connect with ordinary voters

She has favors to repay to friends

(CNN) -- Hillary Clinton is set to hobnob with world leaders and the biggest names in business, politics, academia and philanthropy -- not to mention celebrities -- at the Clinton Global Initiative in New York City, fresh off her re-entry into the political fray at the Iowa Steak Fry.

The two settings couldn't be more different: one a huge family reunion-style gathering in a field dotted with farm equipment, the other a star-studded roster of events in swanky midtown Manhattan hotel ballrooms where Leonardo DiCaprio, Jordan's King Abdullah II and Melinda Gates, among (many, many) other prominent people will make appearances. Clinton's challenge, if she runs for president a second time, will be showing she is just as comfortable with Iowa's steak fry crowd as with New York and Washington's elite.

As she spends this fall campaigning for vulnerable Democrats trying desperately to maintain control of the Senate, Clinton needs to show she understands the problems of everyday Americans, even though she rubs shoulders with world leaders and the uber rich.

She will flex political muscles that have atrophied since her 2008 presidential run and try to avoid making errors like those that punctuated her reintroduction to public life this summe: a book tour bookended by gaffes -- including her remark that she and her husband were "dead broke" -- and her phone call to President Obama in which she apologized for disparaging his foreign policy in an interview with The Atlantic.

Hillary Clinton continues to have an overwhelming lead over other possible 2016 Democratic presidential candidates. Although the former first lady and secretary of state has not said whether she'll run, a group of PACs and advocacy organizations have begun the process of raising money and aiding a hypothetical campaign.

Vice President Joe Biden has twice before made unsuccessful bids for the Oval Office -- in 1988 and 2008. A former senator known for his foreign policy and national security expertise, Biden made the rounds on the morning shows recently and said he thinks he'd "make a good President."

Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican rising star from Florida, was swept into office in 2010 on the back of tea party fervor. But his support of comprehensive immigration reform, which passed the Senate but has stalled in the House, has led some in his party to sour on his prospects.

New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie has fallen out of the top spot among potential Republican presidential candidates with a political scandal roiling his administration.

Rep. Paul Ryan, a former 2012 vice presidential candidate and fiscally conservative budget hawk, says he's "keeping my options open" for a possible presidential run but is not focused on it.

Sen. Rand Paul has said that he was seriously considering a run for president in 2016. If the tea party favorite decides to jump in, he likely will have to address previous controversies that include comments on civil rights, a plagiarism allegation, and his assertion the top NSA official lied to Congress about surveillance.

Texas Sen. Ted Cruz plans to travel to states that factor into the early nomination process. The first-term Republican and tea party darling is considered a gifted orator and smart politician. He is best known in the Senate for his marathon filibuster over defunding Obamacare.

Maryland Democratic Gov. Martin O'Malley released a "buzzy" political video in November 2013 in tandem with visits to New Hampshire. He also headlined a Democratic Party event in South Carolina, which holds the first southern primary.

Republican Texas Gov. Rick Perry announced in 2013 that he would not be seeking re-election, leading to speculation he might mount a second White House bid.

Louisiana Gov. Bobby Jindal said recently it's too early to announce whether he'll run. Jindal has said he wants to focus on "winning the war of ideas" before making a decision on his presidential ambitions.

Former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum, a social conservative, gave Mitt Romney his toughest challenge in the nomination fight last time out and has made trips recently to early voting states, including Iowa and South Carolina.

Political observers expect New York Gov. Andrew Cuomo to yield to Hillary Clinton should she run in 2016, fearing there wouldn't be room in the race for two Democrats from the Empire State. Should she not jump in, Cuomo would then be a potential candidate.

Gov. Scott Walker of Wisconsin is considered a possible Republican candidate, but he told CNN that his priority is to first help the GOP capture the Senate in next November's midterms.

Former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush has said his decision to run for the Republican nomination will be based on two things -- his family and whether he can lift America's spirit. His father and brother formerly served as President.

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Here's what Hillary Clinton needs to do this fall as she re-enters the campaign sphere:

1) Connect with ordinary voters

Clinton's big book tour blunder was saying that she and her husband, former President Bill Clinton, were "dead broke" when they left the White House. The former secretary of state followed that assertion by saying that they are not "truly well off," despite having earned more than $100 million as a couple since 2000.

Democrats are practically pleading for Clinton to use her midterm campaign rally appearances -- which she has yet to announce -- to bring herself back down to earth.

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"She is a Midwesterner really," said one Democratic strategist supportive of a Clinton run, who was granted anonymity to speak freely, "and she has been spending a lot of time in very rarefied air."

She tried to start reaching out at the Harkin Steak Fry by addressing voters' economic anxieties. "If you work hard and play by the rules, you deserve the possibility of a good life for you and your family," Clinton told the jeans and T-shirt crowd as they ate red meat with plastic forks.

Supporters of Clinton insist the notion that she is out of touch won't hold. But that won't stop her critics from trying to make it stick.

Clinton observers say they are concerned she will react to her unforced errors of the book tour by being too scripted, maintaining a controlled environment that ultimately stifles her authentic moments and makes her appear aloof.

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"All good politicians in the Internet Age maintain a controlled environment. In Secretary Clinton's case, one of the reasons her off-script moments have so much power is because people have gotten so used to seeing her through that controlled prism," says Phil Singer, who served as a spokesman on Clinton's '08 campaign.

He cited her testimony before Congress on Benghazi -- when she countered Republican questions about what prompted the attack on the U.S. mission in Libya by exclaiming "What difference at this point does it make?" -- as an example of Clinton effectively standing her ground. And he said her improvised quips when a shoe was thrown at her during a speaking engagement in April highlighted her sense of humor and made her seem quick on her feet.

2) Rally the base, especially women

Hillary Clinton needs to tune up her appeal to key parts of the Democratic base: African-Americans, Latinos, younger voters and, in particular, women.

On Wednesday, the final day of CGI, Hillary Clinton and Melinda Gates will appear before a crowd of thousands to discuss progress around the world for girls' and women's equality, an issue Clinton first took to the international stage in 1995 at the United Nation's Women's Conference in Beijing.

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Clinton has begun embracing her gender -- something she put on the back burner in 2008 -- as she specifically addresses women's economic concerns.

"We see it in the motherhood penalty, with many women forced to take a pay cut when they have children while men often get a pay bump," she said. "So let's be clear; these aren't just women's issues, they're family issues, they are American issues and they hold back our entire economy."

In Iowa, some of Clinton's most well-received comments were about equal pay and women's reproductive health.

Her base is eager for more.

"I think she's really qualified. Plus I'd kind of like to see a woman in the White House!" Linda Church of Ames, Iowa, told CNN, a constant refrain among women at the Harkin Steak Fry.

Clinton is expected to take that appeal on the campaign trail, where many of the candidates she may stump for are women -- Sen. Kay Hagan in North Carolina, Sen. Jeanne Shaheen in New Hampshire or perhaps Staci Appel, who is running for a seat in the House in Iowa and has a real shot at becoming the first woman Iowans elect to a federal office.

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She could help Democrats in states where women's issues are playing big, like Colorado, where the hot-button issue of reproductive health has become a major campaign topic in the race between Democratic Sen. Mark Udall and his

Republican challenger, Rep. Cory Gardner. Or Clinton could campaign for men running against women, like Bruce Braley, who is facing off against Republican candidate Joni Ernst in Iowa's Senate race.

DREAMers confront Hillary Clinton

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, pictured in October 2012, has become one of the most powerful people in Washington. Here's a look at her life and career through the years.

Before she married Bill Clinton, she was Hillary Rodham. Here, Rodham talks about student protests in 1969, which she supported in her commencement speech at Wellesley College in Wellesley, Massachusetts.

Rodham, center, a lawyer for the Rodino Committee, and John Doar, left, chief counsel for the committee, bring impeachment charges against President Richard Nixon in the Judiciary Committee hearing room at the U.S. Capitol in 1974.

Arkansas Gov. Bill Clinton helps first lady Rosalynn Carter on a campaign swing through Arkansas in June 1979. Also seen in the photo is Hillary Clinton, center background.

Bill Clinton embraces his wife shortly after a stage light fell near her on January 26, 1992. They talk to Don Hewitt, producer of the CBS show "60 Minutes."

With Hillary, Democratic presidential candidate Bill Clinton waves to the crowd at his victory party after winning the Illinois primary on March 17, 1992.

Al Gore, Tipper Gore, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton wave to supporters at the Chautauqua Institution in Chautauqua, New York, after they gave speeches on family values on August 23, 1992.

Clinton gestures at a campaign rally November 3, 1992, in Denver. After taking office, President Clinton chose his wife to head a special commission on health care reform, the most significant public policy initiative of his first year in office.

Bill and Hillary Clinton have a laugh together on Capitol Hill in 1993.

Clinton pours herself a cup of tea in 1993 while testifying to the Senate Education and Labor Committee about health care reform.

Clinton speaks at George Washington University on September 10, 1993, in Washington during her husband's first term.

Clinton waves to the media on January 26, 1996, as she arrives at federal court in Washington for an appearance before a grand jury. The first lady was subpoenaed to testify as a witness in the investigation of the Whitewater land deal in Arkansas.

Hillary Clinton looks on as President Clinton discusses the Monica Lewinsky scandal in the Roosevelt Room of the White House on January 26, 1998.

Hillary and Bill Clinton arrive at Foundry United Methodist Church on August 16, 1998, in Washington. He became the first sitting president to testify before a grand jury when he testified via satellite about the Lewinsky matter.

Clinton shakes hands during a St. Patrick's Day parade in the Sunnyside neighborhood of Queens, New York, on March 5, 2000.

Clinton waves to the crowd as she arrives on the stage at the Democratic National Convention on August 14, 2000, in Los Angeles.

Clinton campaigns for a Senate seat October 25, 2000, at Grand Central Station in New York.

Hillary Clinton is sworn in as a senator of New York in a re-enactment ceremony with, from left, President Clinton, nephew Tyler, daughter Chelsea, brother Hugh Rodham, mother Dorothy Rodham and Vice President Al Gore on January 3, 2001, in Washington.

Andrew Cuomo, Eliot Spitzer and Clinton celebrate with a crowd of Democratic supporters after their wins in various races November 7, 2006, in New York.

Clinton speaks during a post-primary rally on January 8, 2007, at Southern New Hampshire University in Manchester, New Hampshire.

The Clintons pay a visit to the 92nd annual Hopkinton State Fair in Contoocook, New Hampshire, on September 2, 2007.

Clinton speaks at a campaign rally September 2, 2007, in Portsmouth, New Hampshire. She was running for the Democratic presidential nomination.

Clinton addresses a question during a debate with other Democratic presidential candidate at Dartmouth College in Hanover, New Hampshire, on September 26, 2007. Also pictured are U.S. Rep. Dennis Kucinich of Ohio, left, and former U.S. Sen. Mike Gravel of Alaska.

Felipe Bravo, left, and Christian Caraballo are covered with Hillary Clinton stickers in downtown Manchester, New Hampshire, on January 8, 2008.

Clinton campaigns in Council Bluffs, Iowa, with her daughter, Chelsea, on January 1, 2008, two days ahead of the January 3 state caucus.

Clinton waves as she speaks to supporters at the National Building Museum on June 7, 2008, in Washington. After pulling out of the presidential race, Clinton thanked her supporters and urged them to back Barack Obama to be the next president of the United States.

Obama and Clinton talk on the plane on their way to a Unity Rally in Unity, New Hampshire, on June 27, 2008.

Obama watches Clinton address the Democratic National Convention on August 26, 2008. The two endured a long, heated contest for the 2008 nomination.

Sen. Charles Schumer, left, looks toward Secretary of State designate Clinton as Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman Sen. John Kerry, center, looks on during nomination hearings January 13, 2009, on Capitol Hill.

Clinton testifies during her confirmation hearing for secretary of state on January 13, 2009, in Washington.

Clinton, as secretary of state, dances with a local choir while visiting the Victoria Mxenge Housing Project in Philippi, a township on the outskirts of Cape Town, South Africa, on August 8, 2009.

Clinton looks through binoculars toward North Korea during a visit to an observation post July 21, 2010, at the demilitarized zone separating the two Koreas.

Clinton walks up the steps to her aircraft as she leaves a meeting of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations on July 23, 2010, in Hanoi, Vietnam.

Hillary and Bill Clinton pose on the day of their daughter's wedding to Marc Mezvinsky on July 31, 2010, in Rhinebeck, New York.

U.S. President Barack Obama and Clinton observe a moment of silence before a NATO meeting November 19, 2010, in Lisbon, Portugal.

Clinton listens as Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet Davutoglu makes a brief statement November 29, 2010, before a bilateral meeting at the State Department in Washington.

Clinton shakes hands with a child during an unannounced walk through Tahrir Square in Cairo on March 16, 2011.

Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Clinton and members of Obama's national security team receive an update on the Osama bin Laden mission May 1, 2011, in the Situation Room of the White House.

Clinton checks her personal digital assistant prior to departing Malta on October 18, 2011.

Clinton dances while in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 15, 2012.

Clinton enjoys a beer at Cafe Havana in Cartagena, Colombia, on April 15, 2012.

Clinton appears with little makeup during an event in Dhaka, Bangladesh, on May 6, 2012. She tells CNN, "I feel so relieved to be at the stage I'm at in my life right now ... Because you know if I want to wear my glasses, I'm wearing my glasses. If I want to wear my hair back I'm pulling my hair back. You know at some point it's just not something that deserves a lot of time and attention."

Clinton speaks as Afghanistan President Hamid Karzai listens during a news conference at the presidential palace in Kabul, Afghanistan, on July 7, 2012.

Clinton arrives at Ben Gurion International Airport in Israel on July 15, 2012.

Clinton looks on as Obama makes a statement in response to the attack at the U.S. Consulate in Libya on September 12, 2012.

Clinton applauds Myanmar opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi during a ceremony where Suu Kyi was presented with the Congressional Gold Medal on September 19, 2012.

Bill Clinton kisses his wife after introducing her at the Clinton Global Initiative annual meeting on September 24, 2012, in New York City.

Clinton shakes hands with Libyan President Mohamed Magariaf on September 24, 2012, in New York.

Clinton stands during a news conference following meetings at the prime minister's office in Pristina, Kosovo, on October 31, 2012. Clinton said that Kosovo's unilaterally declared independence, fiercely opposed by Serbia, was "not up for discussion."

Clinton chats with Suu Kyi before Obama speaks at the University of Yangon in Yangon, Myanmar, on November 19, 2012.

Obama looks at Clinton before the start of a bilateral meeting with Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda, far right, during the East Asian Summit in Phnom Penh, Cambodia, on November 20, 2012.

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu shakes hands with Clinton at the prime minister's office November 20, 2012, in Jerusalem.

Clinton receives a sports jersey and football helmet from Deputy Secretary Tom Nides, center, after returning to work on January 7, 2013, following a fall where she hit her head and doctors later detected a blood clot. The number 112 represented the number of countries that she had visited as secretary of state.

Clinton and her husband arrive for the inauguration for Obama's second term on January 21, 2013.

Clinton testifies before the Senate Foreign Relations Committee on Capitol Hill on January 23, 2013. Lawmakers questioned Clinton about the security failures during the Benghazi, Libya, attacks that led to the death of four Americans, including U.S. Ambassador Christopher Stevens.

From left, first lady Michelle Obama stands with former first ladies Laura Bush, Clinton, Barbara Bush and Rosalynn Carter at the opening ceremony of the George W. Bush Presidential Center in Dallas on April 25, 2013.

From left, Clinton, former first lady Laura Bush and former Presidents Bill Clinton and George W. Bush listen to speakers during the memorial service for Nelson Mandela in Soweto, South Africa, on December 10.

Clinton ducks after a woman threw a shoe at her while she was delivering remarks at the Institute of Scrap Recycling Industries conference in Las Vegas on April 10.

Clinton tours the National September 11 Memorial & Museum in New York with President Barack Obama, former New York Mayor Michael Bloomberg, first lady Michelle Obama and former President Clinton on May 15.

Hillary Clinton talks with ABC News anchor Diane Sawyer on Thursday, June 5, for her first television interview in conjunction with the release of her new book.

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight

Photos: Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight

Hillary Clinton's career in the spotlight

$Photos: Clinton\'s political career$ Photos: Clinton's political career

3) Kiss and make up with Iowa

When I asked Hillary Clinton in Iowa if she is going to return to the Hawkeye State to campaign for candidates, her answer didn't inspire confidence that she would.

"Well, we're gonna do what we can," she replied.

How to campaign without campaigning

Clinton's visit to the Harkin Steak Fry, her first political event in almost six years, was a return to the scene of great disappointment, where in 2008 her campaign sorely underestimated the wave of new caucus-goers that then-Sen. Barack Obama would turn out in the first-in-the-nation contest, and she finished in third place, behind John Edwards as well.

"Iowa was tough. It was where the wheels came off the wagon. I don't think anybody has ever forgotten that," said one Clinton '08 alum, "but I do also think that those who want her to run again understand how important it is for her symbolically as well as politically to start off well there."

Her visit last week was a first step, but Iowans want more.

Fresh start for Clinton or deja vu?

"I think she just needs to connect with everybody more than she did before, especially Iowans," said Joni Williams of West Des Moines, an '08 Obama supporter who is now backing a presumed Clinton run. "I don't think she really showed up as much as Barack did last time. He was here all the time."

And that enthusiasm that Obama inspired? It might be impossible to replicate.

"That'll never happen again. That was a one-time event with Barack Obama," said Jim Mikulanec of Indianola, Iowa. "I think we're going to have a great campaign with Hillary if she runs, but you can't put that back in the bottle. She'll have to reconfigure."

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One Iowa politico, who was also granted anonymity to speak freely, said Clinton will find an enormous amount of support but noted there is still a significant minority of Democratic caucus-goers who are skeptical of her.

"They are not impressed with her since she left the State Department. Her (book tour) gaffes are reminiscent of how she approached the ('08) campaign. It doesn't mean they won't support her, but their enthusiasm depends on how she relates to Iowans. She needs to press the flesh to get over that, she needs to show she is listening to voters, sharing her views, not telling her views."

Another visit to Iowa before the midterms would go a long way.

4) Repay favors to friends

While Clinton's midterm campaign stops are still not public, those close to her say she will campaign where her popularity will best help candidates.

Bernie Sanders challenges Hillary Clinton

Her appearances will be limited: We may not see her on the stump until home stretch poll numbers in tight races determine where Clinton is most useful as a surrogate or until the beginning of early voting periods, which attract more Democratic than Republican voters.

This is also a time for Clinton to help those pals who have supported her over the years, and all the better if they happen to be in a state that's advantageous to her presidential aspirations.

Sen. Jeanne Shaheen seems like a natural recipient of a visit from Hillary Clinton. New Hampshire holds the first-in-the-nation primary election, and Clinton's '08 win there breathed new life into her candidacy after her Iowa loss.

The Clintons also owe the Shaheens a debt. Shaheen's husband, Bill, fell on his sword in 2007, resigning as co-chair of Clinton's New Hampshire operation after suggesting that Obama's disclosure of cocaine use in his younger years would hinder his candidacy. Former President Bill Clinton has already hosted a high-dollar fundraiser for the New Hampshire incumbent.

"The premise (would be) she is just there to help a longtime friend," one Democratic strategist said of the possible campaign appearance.

Friends or not, Hillary Clinton will be judged by whether the candidates she endorses win or lose.

That's why Bill Clinton will be doing much of the heavy lifting. He's expected to squeeze every minute out of the next couple months campaigning alongside Democrats. His wife, sources say, will choose more carefully, appearing with far fewer candidates.

"Remaining less political is in her interest," said Ron Brownstein, editorial director at Atlantic Media, pointing to recent poll numbers that show Clinton's approval rating dipping as she has re-entered public life. "But the people she owes favors to and she wants favors from are all going to expect her help."

5) Get to yes ... or get out of the way

Clinton ruled out a second presidential run as recently as late last year. How things have changed.

In July, after "Daily Show" host Jon Stewart asked her if she liked an office with or without corners, she joked, "You know, I think that the world is so complicated, the fewer corners that you can have, the better."

Now she says she will make her decision after the new year and teased the crowd in Iowa, saying, "It's true. I am thinking about it."

So what is she struggling with? It seems to be finding a way to articulate a case to voters about why they should put her back in the White House.

"We've reached a point in our life when we think you really shouldn't run for office if you don't have a clear idea of what you can do and a unique contribution you can make and you can outline that," Bill Clinton said this summer.

And then there's the question of what a Hillary Clinton team would look like. Her '08 campaign was notorious for infighting and strategic disputes. Many observers say she greatly needs to refresh her team with new talent, a difficult task for a woman who values loyalty, sometimes above skill, sources say.

"She's got a very small group that is advising her and they're clumsy," said one Democratic strategist who wants to see her widen her circle beyond the group of stalwarts who were with her at the State Department -- many of whom date back to her time in the White House as first lady.

"She has to sort through that universe and another universe of people who are qualified but haven't worked for her in the past and create a team ... that's cohesive and that's functional," said Jay Carney, the former Obama White House press secretary and now a CNN contributor. "It's not an easy task."

If Clinton waits too long to make up her mind, there's a serious risk to the party: Right now she is effectively blocking other Democrats from getting in the race, though Maryland Gov. Martin O'Malley and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders, an Independent who votes with Democrats, have been making the requisite stops in key states.

"It sows a seed of discontent if she's holding out, and those (caucus-goers) skeptical of her might solidify for other candidates," said one Democratic operative in Iowa, who thinks they might seize the opportunity to get in the race if Clinton drags out her decision.

Clinton declared her candidacy in January 2007 for her first shot at the White House, but lamented how early she got in. This time, it's as if she's already running.

"If she's at 43% approval now in 2014, after just doing a quote-unquote book tour, then the public already sees her as a candidate," said Amy Walter of the Cook Political Report. "It's just about making it official."

2014 news

Sunday 21 September 2014

Hillary Clinton's fall to-do list

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