Tuesday 14 October 2014

Megaquake could hit West Coast






Firefighters extinguish a blaze in San Francisco's Marina District on October 21, 1989, in the aftermath of a 6.9-magnitude earthquake that hit the Bay Area. The Loma Prieta earthquake struck four days earlier and caused 63 deaths, 3,757 injuries and an estimated $6 billion in property damage, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.Firefighters extinguish a blaze in San Francisco's Marina District on October 21, 1989, in the aftermath of a 6.9-magnitude earthquake that hit the Bay Area. The Loma Prieta earthquake struck four days earlier and caused 63 deaths, 3,757 injuries and an estimated $6 billion in property damage, according to the U.S. Geological Survey.

Search-and-rescue workers Tim Schilwachder, left, and Mamdouch Shabaan embrace shortly after a man was rescued from the Cypress Street Viaduct, a raised freeway in Oakland, California, that collapsed during the earthquake.Search-and-rescue workers Tim Schilwachder, left, and Mamdouch Shabaan embrace shortly after a man was rescued from the Cypress Street Viaduct, a raised freeway in Oakland, California, that collapsed during the earthquake.

The quake happened before the start of the third game of the 1989 World Series, which was being played between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland Athletics at San Francisco's Candlestick Park. The series was postponed for 10 days.The quake happened before the start of the third game of the 1989 World Series, which was being played between the San Francisco Giants and the Oakland Athletics at San Francisco's Candlestick Park. The series was postponed for 10 days.

A collapsed portion of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge is seen on October 22, 1989.A collapsed portion of the San Francisco-Oakland Bay Bridge is seen on October 22, 1989.

A military police officer steps over caution tape in the Marina District, one of the hardest-hit areas.A military police officer steps over caution tape in the Marina District, one of the hardest-hit areas.

A car is crushed by the impact of a falling building in the Marina District.A car is crushed by the impact of a falling building in the Marina District.

Rescue workers help a dog out of a damaged building in the Marina District.Rescue workers help a dog out of a damaged building in the Marina District.

Rescue efforts continue atop the Cypress Street Viaduct.Rescue efforts continue atop the Cypress Street Viaduct.

Emergency workers prop up a collapsed building in the Marina District.Emergency workers prop up a collapsed building in the Marina District.

A destroyed apartment building is demolished in the Marina District.A destroyed apartment building is demolished in the Marina District.









  • 25 years ago, a 6.7-magnitude earthquake hit San Francisco

  • Since then, West coast communities have assessed their earthquake readiness

  • A huge fault line runs through Oregon

  • Oregon, like much of the world, is not prepared for a megaquake




(CNN) -- It was rush hour on a Tuesday, and Dorothy Otto was sitting in traffic in her Pontiac Bonneville on the lower level of the Cypress Freeway, in Oakland, California, when the voice on the radio said, "We're having an earthquake."


Suddenly, the concrete around her began to ripple.


There was a giant crash, and a large, heavy beam dropped on the front of her car, crushing the engine, barely missing her face. The car dropped 20 feet, and when it settled, Otto's left foot was trapped.


The double-decker freeway had collapsed, pinning motorists in their cars.




Dorothy Otto has held on to the blood-stained note she wrote while trapped on the Cypress Freeway.

Dorothy Otto has held on to the blood-stained note she wrote while trapped on the Cypress Freeway.










According to the World Bank, since 1980 low-income countries have accounted for only 9% of the world's disasters, yet for 48% of the resultant fatalities. Much of this is down to the expense and inaccessibility of the emergency tech used by wealthier nations. That's why US designer and public policy grad Francisco Aguilar developed Bounce Imaging -- a low cost, all-seeing eye that can be thrown like a baseball into hostile and high-risk situations.According to the World Bank, since 1980 low-income countries have accounted for only 9% of the world's disasters, yet for 48% of the resultant fatalities. Much of this is down to the expense and inaccessibility of the emergency tech used by wealthier nations. That's why US designer and public policy grad Francisco Aguilar developed Bounce Imaging -- a low cost, all-seeing eye that can be thrown like a baseball into hostile and high-risk situations.



The shock-absorbent ball, which contains a series of cameras and sensors, can be thrown into dangerous or unknown locations to take panoramic images. It can also have heat sensors, Geiger counters, vibration antennae and smoke detectors installed. All the information is then fed back instantly to a mobile device so that first responders can assess what is round the corner, down a tunnel or amid the rubble.The shock-absorbent ball, which contains a series of cameras and sensors, can be thrown into dangerous or unknown locations to take panoramic images. It can also have heat sensors, Geiger counters, vibration antennae and smoke detectors installed. All the information is then fed back instantly to a mobile device so that first responders can assess what is round the corner, down a tunnel or amid the rubble.




A similar concept to Bounce Imaging, 110 FirstLook can be thrown into a risky situation and roll over terrains and into tunnels to take pictures and feed audio back to its controller. The latest robot for US law enforcement, FirstLook provides hasty situational awareness to first responders. However, it is considerably more expensive than Bounce.

A similar concept to Bounce Imaging, 110 FirstLook can be thrown into a risky situation and roll over terrains and into tunnels to take pictures and feed audio back to its controller. The latest robot for US law enforcement, FirstLook provides hasty situational awareness to first responders. However, it is considerably more expensive than Bounce.



But what other tools are available for emergency situations? Just as homeowners can protect themselves by using their peephole to identify visitors before opening the door, this simple gadget can reverse the effect so law enforcers can inspect what is going on inside a home before entering. But what other tools are available for emergency situations? Just as homeowners can protect themselves by using their peephole to identify visitors before opening the door, this simple gadget can reverse the effect so law enforcers can inspect what is going on inside a home before entering.



In October 2013, Telerob, developed by aerospace firm Cobham, received two gold medals in EURATHLON, a new robot competition seeking the smartest emergency response robots in the world. Telerob is principally a robotic bomb disposal system but it can handle all sorts of hazardous materials, including in a smoke-filled environment.In October 2013, Telerob, developed by aerospace firm Cobham, received two gold medals in EURATHLON, a new robot competition seeking the smartest emergency response robots in the world. Telerob is principally a robotic bomb disposal system but it can handle all sorts of hazardous materials, including in a smoke-filled environment.



The laser of the Elite Pro is so intense it can burn through even sturdy materials. Featured on Discovery Channel's "Future Weapons", the lasers are used to point a strong beam towards a suspect so as to temporarily thwart their eyesight without causing permanent eye damage.The laser of the Elite Pro is so intense it can burn through even sturdy materials. Featured on Discovery Channel's "Future Weapons", the lasers are used to point a strong beam towards a suspect so as to temporarily thwart their eyesight without causing permanent eye damage.



Future Attribute Screening Technology (FAST) can be used to remotely detect "mal intent" in a person. Using eye trackers, respiratory sensors, thermal cameras, "gesticular analytics" and pheromone detection, Homeland Security hopes to use the technology in, say, airports, to identify potential criminals. There is huge debate surrounding the morality of the technology.Future Attribute Screening Technology (FAST) can be used to remotely detect "mal intent" in a person. Using eye trackers, respiratory sensors, thermal cameras, "gesticular analytics" and pheromone detection, Homeland Security hopes to use the technology in, say, airports, to identify potential criminals. There is huge debate surrounding the morality of the technology.



Scientists at Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences have developed a miniature flying robot that emulates a wasp or bee. The innovative new mechanical insect serves many purposes, including search & rescue in inaccessible areas, military surveillance or risk assessment.Scientists at Harvard's School of Engineering and Applied Sciences have developed a miniature flying robot that emulates a wasp or bee. The innovative new mechanical insect serves many purposes, including search & rescue in inaccessible areas, military surveillance or risk assessment.



Safecast was developed in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima earthquake and nuclear meltdown. It is designed to be used in the wake of a nuclear disaster as a global sensor network for collecting and sharing radiation measurements. The aim is to provide truthful data to the people directly affected.Safecast was developed in the aftermath of the 2011 Fukushima earthquake and nuclear meltdown. It is designed to be used in the wake of a nuclear disaster as a global sensor network for collecting and sharing radiation measurements. The aim is to provide truthful data to the people directly affected.



Gimball is a spherical flying robot encased in a flexible cage that allows it to happily smash into surfaces while navigating disaster sites. Unlike other rescue robots, GimBall is able to bounce back without losing its bearings or damaging its in-built camera. Developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), it could be used to search for survivors or measure gas leaks in collapsed buildings.Gimball is a spherical flying robot encased in a flexible cage that allows it to happily smash into surfaces while navigating disaster sites. Unlike other rescue robots, GimBall is able to bounce back without losing its bearings or damaging its in-built camera. Developed by the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (EPFL), it could be used to search for survivors or measure gas leaks in collapsed buildings.




Also developed in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, this protective suit allows emergency services to act very quickly in the event of a nuclear meltdown. The suit's maker's claim that the "brainwave-controlled" exoskeleton allows workers to wear heavy radiation protection without feeling the weight. Sensors detect signals from the brain and the robot's limbs move in tandem with the wearer's, taking weight off the muscles. It is the creation of Japanese tech firm Cyberdyne, who initially developed the technology to help assist people with disabilities.

Also developed in the wake of the Fukushima nuclear disaster, this protective suit allows emergency services to act very quickly in the event of a nuclear meltdown. The suit's maker's claim that the "brainwave-controlled" exoskeleton allows workers to wear heavy radiation protection without feeling the weight. Sensors detect signals from the brain and the robot's limbs move in tandem with the wearer's, taking weight off the muscles. It is the creation of Japanese tech firm Cyberdyne, who initially developed the technology to help assist people with disabilities.



This Toshiba decontamination robot blasts dry ice particles against contaminated floors or walls and can be used to quickly and effectively clean up chemical spillages at nuclear plants. This Toshiba decontamination robot blasts dry ice particles against contaminated floors or walls and can be used to quickly and effectively clean up chemical spillages at nuclear plants.



This remote-controlled fire fighter by Croatian robotics company Dok Ing is designed to extinguish fires in high risk industrial facilities and areas that may be inaccessible to humans. While the operators remain outside of the range of danger, the MVF-5 fire fighting vehicle is robust enough to survive even mine detonations.This remote-controlled fire fighter by Croatian robotics company Dok Ing is designed to extinguish fires in high risk industrial facilities and areas that may be inaccessible to humans. While the operators remain outside of the range of danger, the MVF-5 fire fighting vehicle is robust enough to survive even mine detonations.



Each year millions of people are displaced by natural disasters and extreme weather. Swedish furniture maker IKEA has introduced a flat-pack housing solution that could provide affordable, effective and quickly assembled shelter for homeless refugees.Each year millions of people are displaced by natural disasters and extreme weather. Swedish furniture maker IKEA has introduced a flat-pack housing solution that could provide affordable, effective and quickly assembled shelter for homeless refugees.




Life-saving tech for disaster zones






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Life-saving tech for disaster zonesLife-saving tech for disaster zones



Otto found a pen and decided to write a note to her husband, just in case.


"Jack, earthquake hit while I was under concrete, worst happened," she wrote. "It collapsed on car. I'm alive, just my left foot is stuck under the car. Hope they don't kill me getting me out. Love you lots, good luck to us both."


Firefighter Lorenzo Frediani was running out of time as he struggled to free Otto's foot and get her to safety. Each aftershock lowered the upper deck, bringing it closer to crushing Otto and Frediani. Then, Frediani was able to nudge the crushed dashboard just enough. Otto was free.


Her section of the Cypress collapsed 20 minutes later.


That was October 17, 1989. The magnitude 6.9 earthquake, now called Loma Prieta, killed 63 people, 42 of them on the Cypress freeway. The quake caused $10 billion in damage, ultimately inspiring California and the rest of the region to re-examine their safety measures for earthquakes.





Why aren't earthquake warnings better?




Drone's eye view of earthquake damage




Remembering the San Francisco quake

Nearby Oregon sits on a huge fault line that separates two of the Earth's tectonic plates. One plate lies beneath the Pacific Ocean, off Oregon's coast, and it is being shoved beneath the North American continent, according to Ian Madin, a geologist and chief scientist at Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries.


Are earthquakes on the rise?


The fault line, known as the Cascadia Subduction Zone, could one day cause an even larger quake.


"As the two plates collide," Madin says, "the fault gets stuck, eventually slipping when enough stress builds up to produce a great earthquake."


With ultra-accurate GPS, Madin says scientists know that the collision is still going on because they can measure the movement. Oregon actually moves about 1½ inches every year, typical for a region near a subduction zone.


These megaquakes can cause strong shaking over large areas for several minutes. They can also lead to landslides, tsunamis and widespread liquefaction, turning soil to soup.


After the deadly 9.0-magnitude quake and tsunami that struck Japan in March 2011, Oregon legislators commissioned a study on the impact a comparable quake could have on the state. Madin was one of the authors of the Oregon Resilience Plan, which is aimed at reducing risk and improving recovery for the next Cascadia earthquake and tsunami.


Oregon is not prepared for a megaquake, and few areas are, Madin says. He says Japan is the most prepared, "and look at the results of their megaquake." The 2011 earthquake and tsunami resulted in more than 15,000 deaths.


Before 1974, there were no specific building requirements in Oregon to make sure structures were built to withstand major quakes, and design codes have only been adequate for the megaquake since 1993, so many structures are not designed to resist such a large earthquake, Madin says.


Earthquake fast facts


"On top of that, we have a lot of mountainous terrain that is highly susceptible to landslides, large areas that are susceptible to liquefaction, and 300 miles of coast that will be inundated by tsunamis that will arrive within 15 to 20 minutes of the earthquake and may locally reach elevations of 100 feet above sea level," he says.


It is these factors that led the Oregon Resilience Plan to conclude that in a worst-case scenario, 10,000 people could be killed, and large areas of Oregon could be without transportation, electricity, water and sewer for several months to several years. The damage could result in $30 billion in economic losses. Madin says $30 billion is almost certainly an underestimate, and death estimates could also be off.


Based on the study of geologic features that record prehistoric earthquakes, scientists generally agree that there have been 42 megaquakes along the Cascadia fault in the last 10,000 years, with the most recent in January 1700.


Using historic data, scientists like Dr. Chris Goldfinger, a marine geologist and professor at Oregon State University, can forecast the probability of another great quake.


The Cascadia Subduction Zone is actually made up of different clusters, according to Goldfinger. On the south end of the fault, the data shows that an earthquake with a magnitude between the high sevens and low eights occurs every 250 years.


"We're 300 years into a 240 year cycle," says Goldfinger.


On the other hand, the north end, with the great population centers, sees a big event closer to every 500 years.


But before Oregonians panic, consider Goldfinger's assessment of the statistics. For the south end of the Cascadia, there is roughly a 35-40% probability of having a major quake in the next 50 years. On the north end, there is only a 10-15% probability.


Even if there is still plenty of time before the next big quake, much work has to be done to make sure Oregon is ready.


"The most important thing is to strengthen or replace infrastructure to make sure that our lifeline systems like power and water will not be so severely damaged that they require years to repair. We also need to strengthen or replace critical facilities like hospitals, fire and police facilities and schools," says Madin.


Following on the release of the Oregon Resilience Plan, the Oregon Legislature established a task force to come up with specific recommendations for action for the 2015 legislative session.


Oregon has already turned a corner because institutions are no longer asking,"Why should I do anything to prepare" and are now asking,"How do I pay for the preparation I know I need?"



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