A man drives his motorcycle through a puddle in Aleppo, Syria, on Wednesday, November 26. The United Nations estimates more than 190,000 people have been killed in Syria since an uprising in March 2011 spiraled into civil war. 
A Syrian opposition fighter fires at Bashar al-Assad Regime forces in the Handarat district of Aleppo on Thursday, November 20. 
Syrian boys play in the ruins of a destroyed building in Aleppo on Tuesday, November 18. 
A wounded man is treated at a makeshift hospital in Damascus, Syria, following a reported air strike by government forces on Tuesday, November 11. 
Members of the Syrian Civil Defense carry an injured man after an alleged air strike in Aleppo on November 11. 
A member of the Syrian Civil Defense walks through a cloud of dust after an alleged air strike by government forces in Aleppo on November 11. 
A father cries over his son at a physical therapy center in Eastern al-Ghouta outside Damascus on Thursday, November 6. The boy had his leg tendons cut after he was injured in an airstrike four months before. 
A blindfolded man suspected of passing military information to the Syrian government waits to be interrogated by Free Syrian Army fighters Monday, October 6, in Aleppo. 
Medics at a field hospital in Douma, Syria, attend to a man who was injured in what activists said were two airstrikes carried out by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad on Saturday, September 20. 
Free Syrian Army fighters rest inside a damaged room in Aleppo on Tuesday, September 16, during what activists said were clashes with forces loyal to al-Assad. 
Syrian government forces walk down a street in Halfaya, Syria, after taking the city from rebel forces on Friday, September 12. 
Al-Qaeda-linked rebels from Syria gather around vehicles carrying U.N. peacekeepers from Fiji before releasing them Thursday, September 11, in the Golan Heights. The 45 peacekeepers were captured in the Golan Heights after rebels seized control of a border crossing between Syria and the Israeli-occupied territory. 
Syrian opposition fighters take position behind sandbags in Aleppo on Thursday, September 11. 
Syrians fleeing the violence stand next to their belongings as they attempt to cross into Turkey on Sunday, September 7. 
A boy looks at bodies lying outside a hospital after a barrel-bomb attack in Aleppo on Friday, September 5. 
A U.N. convoy moves in the buffer zone near the Golan Heights as they are escorted by Syrian rebel fighters near the Syrian village of Jubata Al Khashab on Tuesday, September 2. 
Residents of Aleppo remove a body from debris on Friday, August 29, after what activists claim was shelling by forces loyal to al-Assad. 
Druze men watch from the Golan Heights side of the Quneitra border with Syria as smoke rises during fighting between rebels and forces loyal to al-Assad on Wednesday, August 27. 
This image was taken during a government guided tour in Mleiha, Syria, one day after Syrian government forces retook the town after a months-long battle with rebels, according to a military source and state television on Friday, August 15. 
Residents inspect the rubble of destroyed buildings in Aleppo after Syrian regime helicopters allegedly dropped barrel bombs there on Wednesday, August 13. 
Smoke trails over Aleppo following barrel bombs that were allegedly dropped by the Syrian regime on an opposition-controlled area on Monday, August 11. 
Photographs of victims of the Bashar al-Assad regime are displayed as a Syrian Army defector known as "Caesar," center, appears in disguise to speak before the House Foreign Affairs Committee in Washington. The briefing on Thursday, July 31, was called "Assad's Killing Machine Exposed: Implications for U.S. Policy." Caesar was apparently a witness to al-Assad's brutality and has smuggled more than 50,000 photographs depicting the torture and execution of more than 10,000 dissidents. 
Syrian rebel fighters take up positions behind sandbags in Aleppo on Wednesday, July 30. 
People carry an injured man away from the site of an airstrike, reportedly carried out by Syrian government forces, in Aleppo on Sunday, July 27. 
Rebel fighters execute two men Friday, July 25, in Binnish, Syria. The men reportedly were charged by an Islamic religious court with detonating several car bombs. 
A rebel fighter stands on a dust-covered street in Aleppo on Monday, July 21. 
A man clears debris at the site of an alleged barrel-bomb attack in Aleppo on Tuesday, July 15. 
A woman walks amid debris after an airstrike by government forces July 15 in Aleppo. 
People walk on a dust-filled street after a reported barrel-bomb attack in Aleppo on Monday, July 7. 
Apartments and other buildings lie in ruins on Tuesday, June 3, in Aleppo, a city that "has had the life bombed out of it," according to CNN's Nick Paton Walsh. 
A man carries a girl injured in a reported barrel-bomb attack by government forces June 3 in Aleppo. 
A rebel fighter loads an anti-tank cannon outside Latakia, Syria, on Sunday, June 1. 
A rescue worker pulls a girl from rubble in Aleppo on June 1 after reported bombing by government forces. 
A giant poster of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad is seen in Damascus, Syria, on Saturday, May 31, as the capital prepares for presidential elections. 
Portraits of al-Assad dominate the cityscape in central Damascus on Tuesday, May 27. Al-Assad is firmly in power three years into the civil war, while the opposition remains weak and fragmented and extremists grow in numbers and influence. 
The father of a 3-month-old girl weeps Monday, May 26, after she was pulled from rubble following a barrel-bomb strike in Aleppo. 
A woman stands in a heavily damaged building in Aleppo on May 26. 
An injured man lies in a hospital bed after alleged airstrikes by government forces in Aleppo on Sunday, May 18. 
Buildings in Homs, Syria, lie in ruins Saturday, May 10, days after an evacuation truce went into effect. Thousands of displaced residents returned to the city. 
Rescuers carry a man wounded by a mine in the Bustan al-Diwan neighborhood of Homs on May 10. 
A Syrian woman carries a suitcase along a street in the Juret al-Shayah district of Homs on May 10. 
Residents carry their belongings in the al-Hamidieh neighborhood of Homs on May 10. 
A woman injured when a mine went off is carried in Homs on May 10. 
Residents return to damaged dwellings in Homs on May 10. 
Debris lies on a deserted street in Homs on Thursday, May 8. 
A mosque is seen through shattered glass in Homs, where an evacuation truce went into effect on Wednesday, May 7. 
A wounded man is treated at a makeshift hospital in Aleppo on Sunday, May 4. 
Debris rises in what Free Syrian Army fighters said was an operation to strike a checkpoint and remove government forces in Maarat al-Numan, Syria, on Monday, May 5. 
A man helps a woman through debris after reported airstrikes by government forces on Thursday, May 1, in the Halak neighborhood of Aleppo. 
Syrians gather at the site of reported airstrikes in Aleppo on May 1. According to the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, at least 33 civilians were killed in the attack. 
A woman runs after two barrel bombs were thrown, reportedly by forces loyal to Syrian President Bashar al-Assad in Aleppo on May 1. 
A boy runs in Aleppo on Sunday, April 27, after what activists said were explosive barrels thrown by forces loyal to al-Assad. 
Security and emergency medical personnel work at the site of a car bomb explosion Monday, April 14, in the Ekremah neighborhood of Homs. 
In this photo released by the state-run SANA news agency, Syrian forces take positions during clashes with rebels near the town of Rankous, Syria, on Sunday, April 13. 
Flames engulf a vehicle following a car bomb Wednesday, April 9, in the Karm al-Loz neighborhood of Homs. 
A man carries a child who was found in the rubble of an Aleppo building after it was reportedly bombed by government forces on Monday, March 18. 
An elderly man and a child walk among debris in a residential block of Aleppo on March 18. 
A woman with blood on her face carries a child following a reported airstrike by government forces Saturday, March 15, in Aleppo. 
People attempt to comfort a man in Aleppo after a reported airstrike by government forces on Sunday, March 9. 
Buildings in Homs lay in ruins on March 9. 
Syrian forces fire a cannon and a heavy machine gun loaded on a truck as they fight rebels in the Syrian town of Zara on Saturday, March 8. 
A handout photo released by SANA shows Syrian President Bashar al-Assad speaking March 8 during a meeting in Damascus to mark the 51st anniversary of the 1963 revolution, when Baath Party supporters in the Syrian army seized power. Al-Assad said the country will go on with reconciliation efforts along with its fight against terrorism. 
Syrians inspect the rubble of destroyed buildings in Aleppo following a reported airstrike by Syrian government forces on Friday, March 7. 
People dig through the rubble of a building in Damascus that was allegedly hit by government airstrikes on Thursday, February 27. 
A boy walks ahead of men carrying the body of his mother in Aleppo on Saturday, February 22. According to activists, the woman was killed when explosive barrels were thrown by forces loyal to al-Assad. 
A man holds a baby who survived what activists say was an airstrike by al-Assad loyalists Friday, February 14, in Aleppo. 
In this photo provided by the anti-government activist group Aleppo Media Center, Syrian men help survivors out of a building in Aleppo after it was bombed, allegedly by a Syrian regime warplane on Saturday, February 8. 
Syrians gather at a site hit by barrel bombs, allegedly dropped by a regime helicopter on the opposition-controlled Mesekin Hananu district of Aleppo on February 8. 
In this handout photo released by the state-run SANA news agency on February 8, civilians wave national flags in Damascus as they take part in a rally in support of President al-Assad. 
A man stands next to debris in the road following a reported airstrike by Syrian government forces in Aleppo on February 8. 
Medical personnel look for survivors after a reported airstrike in Aleppo on Saturday, February 1. 
Syrians carry a dead body following an airstrike on February 1. 
A man walks amid debris and dust on January 31. 
An injured man is covered in dust after an airstrike on January 29. 
A man tries to fix electrical wires in Aleppo on January 27. 
Rebels and civilians check out a crater that activists say resulted from a Syrian government airstrike on an Aleppo bus station on Tuesday, January 21. 
Men rush to a site that Syrian government forces reportedly hit in Aleppo on January 21. 
Buildings lie in ruins in Aleppo on Sunday, January 19, after reported air raids by Syrian government planes. 
A child collects items from a garbage pile in Douma, northeast of the capital, on Saturday, January 18. 
A piece of exploded mortar lies in a street in Daraya, a Syrian city southwest of Damascus, on Friday, January 17.
- Hardline Salafist groups and especially al Qaeda's affiliate on offensive in Syria
- Moderates suffer from poor morale, lack of resources, allowing others to prosper
- Making things still worse, there appears to be at least truce between al-Nusra and ISIS
- West has stark choice: Bashar al-Assad or ISIS and other jihadist groups
(CNN) -- The fortunes of potential U.S. allies among Syrian rebel groups are ebbing fast as hardline Salafist groups and especially al Qaeda's affiliate go on the offensive. The past month has dealt further reverses to already-beleaguered moderate groups, whose presence in the critical northern provinces of Idlib and Aleppo has further eroded.
This is a growing headache for the Obama administration, which is trying to identify, train and "stand up" moderate rebel factions to take on the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria. Washington has announced a $500 million program to train 5,000 fighters over one year.
But it is yet to begin, and some of these groups are now in retreat or on the verge of extinction. Those that aren't are wary of being identified as "Washington's guys" because of the administration's focus on degrading ISIS but not going after Syrian government forces.
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Analysts say moderate groups are caught between a rock and a hard place, pilloried by radical factions for taking Western weapons but failing to get enough of them (or quickly enough) to become serious players.
Noah Bonsey of the International Crisis Group writes in Foreign Policy, "For a rebel commander seeking to convince his fighters that cooperation with Washington is in the rebellion's best interest, American strikes that ignore the Assad regime while hitting (Islamist rebels in) Ahrar al-Sham are extremely difficult to explain."
Moderate groups also suffer from poor morale and a lack of resources.
All in all, says Kimberly Kagan, president of the Institute for the Study of War, "the forces that the U.S. has nominally been backing have suffered losses at the hands of the Islamic State, Jabhat al-Nusra (al Qaeda's Syrian franchise) and the regime." The current trajectory, she says, means "the moderate opposition remains marginal and incapable of shaping the battlefield in any material way."
Bonsey said coalition airstrikes against ISIS had allowed President Bashar al-Assad to refocus on hitting mainstream rebels, and the regime had made gains around Hama and Aleppo. Combined with al-Nusra's advances in Idlib and the threat of a renewed offensive by ISIS, moderate groups were now in danger of a rapid decline.
Kristen Gillespie, founder of the website Syria Direct, agrees: "American policy freed up the regime to step up bombings of its own civilians, which we are seeing in areas across Syria such as Jobar, Hama and Homs."
Al-Nusra appears to have benefited from the limited strikes against its subsidiary, the Khorasan Group, which the U.S. alleges is planning attacks on the West. Observers say the strikes, and reports of civilian casualties, have gained the group sympathy and support.
Making things still worse, there appears to be at least a truce between al-Nusra and ISIS, allowing each to focus on other enemies, whether moderate groups, the regime or the Kurds, and consolidate control over their respective strongholds. The U.S. director of national intelligence, James Clapper, last month spoke of "tactical accommodations" between the two groups. Other sources say smaller Salafist groups that share the jihadist outlook of al-Nusra and ISIS have helped broker local agreements.
An al-Nusra spokesman, Abu Azzam al-Ansari, told Syria Direct last month that al-Nusra is looking for a cease-fire, though not a larger merger with ISIS, because it wants to focus on fighting "just the Alawites (regime)."
Such a truce may allow al-Nusra free rein in the northwest of Syria, while ISIS focuses on its heartland in the northeast.
In the past month, it has overwhelmed forces of the Syrian Revolutionaries' Front and Harakat Hazm in Idlib, both supported by the U.S. and Saudi Arabia. The Revolutionaries' Front had been seen as a potential U.S. ally since it helped expel ISIS fighters from the region in January. Dozens of Harakat Hazm fighters defected to al-Nusra, according to local activists.
Al-Nusra fighters are within a few kilometers of border crossings into Turkey, a source of revenue and resupply. Local activists and analysts also see al-Nusra developing a closer relationship with the most powerful group within the Islamic Front: Ahrar al-Sham.
Gillespie says Ahrar is popular in Idlib as many of its members are from the province. "They have the popularity; Nusra has more of the military might," she says. Together, "they appear to be a formidable foe for anyone looking to take over Idlib."
Al-Nusra's propaganda machine has showcased the social services it is providing and its convoys parading through Idlib.
To some analysts, al-Nusra appears to be emulating ISIS in building its own emirate in northern Syria. In a recording leaked in July, al-Nusra's leader, Abu Muhammad al-Julani, was heard saying the time had come to establish "an Islamic emirate in the Levant." Bonsey says it has "withdrawn assets from key fronts with the regime and shifted them to establish unilateral control of other areas."
Al-Nusra has begun implementing sharia law and building local government, releasing images of its Da'wah (Islamic preaching) offices in the town of Sarmada and elsewhere. But Gillespie says "they are moving slowly, because people still fear Nusra is a version of ISIS. Nusra is launching campaigns to create gardens, pick up trash and other measures that improve people's quality of life."
Even so, other factions are apprehensive that it's on the way to emulating ISIS and building its own caliphate, says Bonsey.
Stark choice
In neighboring Aleppo province, an area the al-Assad regime has fought hard to control, the battlefield is even more complex. After Damascus, the city of Aleppo remains the most important theater for both the regime and its opponents. Western reporters who have managed to get into Aleppo say the Islamic Front -- an umbrella group of Islamist militia -- is in control of rebel-held neighborhoods, while al-Nusra dominates in the countryside to the north.
Al-Nusra and its allies are engaged in a bitter battle against the regime and fighters of the Lebanese militia Hezbollah for control of two nearby towns -- Zahra and Nubul -- inhabited largely by pro-regime Shiites.
Videos and photographs uploaded in recent days suggest a sustained assault against Zahra and Nubul: In one instance, al-Nusra appears to have used a captured armored troop carrier as a massive suicide bomb.
Success against the regime in these towns would secure a vital supply route for rebels clinging on in Aleppo in the face of aerial and artillery bombardment, but for now ,the towns' defenders are holding out.
Al Nusra is launching campaigns to create gardens, pick up trash and other measures that improve people's quality of life.
Kristen Gillespie
Al-Nusra is clearly taking territory while it can, perhaps wary of ISIS suddenly turning on it (as it did in August) or the emergence of better-equipped groups supported by the West. As the regime and rebels fight to a standstill around Aleppo, ISIS waits in the wings, looking for an opportunity to take further territory (if not the city itself) from exhausted combatants.
ISIS holds rural areas near the town of Marea, 20 miles north of Aleppo. Among the groups lined up against it are fighters of the Jaish al Mujahideen, a mainstream outfit that has U.S. support and claims to have about 6,000 fighters. But one of the group's commanders, Abdulaziz, told Reuters this week that only 50 men have received training in a CIA-sponsored program. They would be hard-pressed to resist a renewed ISIS assault in the area.
Ultimately, Bonsey says, "to reverse jihadist gains, you need to strengthen moderate groups and get as many of them as possible on the same page."
The creation last week of the Revolutionary Command Council, which includes a wide spectrum of rebel groups, could be significant -- if it survives and so long as it doesn't become just a vehicle for Salafist factions such as Ahrar al-Sham. So far, says Bonsey, "the bottom line is that the pace and scale of U.S. support is not sufficient to halt, let alone reverse, the erosion of moderate forces."
Most territory in Syria is essentially shared by the "big three": ISIS, al-Nusra and its allies, and the regime.
"The Americans have painted themselves into a corner, left to work only with so-called moderates, who at this point have mostly been kidnapped, killed, exiled or absorbed into Islamist factions," says Gillespie.
That fits the al-Assad regime's game plan. Kill off the mainstream groups and leave the West with a stark choice: Bashar al-Assad or ISIS and other jihadist groups turning Syria into an Islamic state.
Inside Kobani, scenes of devastation everywhere
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