Can a Democrat win in Georgia?

Georgia Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate Michelle Nunn, right, speaks as Republican candidate David Perdue looks on during a debate, Tuesday, Oct. 7, 2014, in Perry, Ga.

• Democrat Michelle Nunn has a small 47%-44% edge over Republican David Perdue.


• That's according to a new CNN/ORC International survey


• If Nunn wins, she'd be the first Democrat elected statewide in more than a decade


• The gubernatorial race between Gov. Nathan Deal and Democrat Jason Carter is also close

(CNN) -- Democrat Michelle Nunn has a slight 47%-44% edge over Republican David Perdue in the Georgia race for an open Senate seat, according to a new CNN/ORC International survey released Friday.

The three-point margin falls within the poll's sampling error of plus or minus four percentage points, meaning the two candidates are statistically tied less than two weeks before Election Day.

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If neither candidate garners 50% of the vote, the race heads to a January runoff.

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Democrats are throwing a lot of money in Georgia, as the party hopes to thwart what's widely expected to be a strong year for Senate Republicans and their quest to take control of the Senate. The GOP needs to win a net six seats to win the majority.

Libertarian candidate Amanda Swafford is pulling 5% of the vote in Georgia, keeping Nunn and Perdue from reaching the 50% threshold.

A Libertarian candidate is also peeling off votes in Georgia's contested gubernatorial race between Republican incumbent Gov. Nathan Deal and Democratic challenger, Jason Carter, the grandson of former President Jimmy Carter.

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The CNN/ORC poll, conducted by telephone October 19-22 with 565 likely voters, indicates Carter has a 48%-46% advantage over Deal, while Libertarian candidate Andrew Hunt gets 6% support.

In the Senate race, CNN Director Keating Holland said Nunn's ability to make the race competitive in a reliably red state -- no Democrat has won a statewide election in more than a decade -- is a surprising show of strength.

"The Georgia electorate appears to be the most pro-Obama group of likely voters in the 11 states CNN has surveyed this fall," Holland said. "That's not saying much -- Obama's approval rating among Georgia likely voters is only 44%. But that's still better than the high-30s he gets in states like Iowa and new Hampshire, not to mention the low 30s in Kansas and Alaska."

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Nunn has a particular advantage over Perdue among likely women voters, 56%-38%, and among likely voters who live in the all-important suburbs that dominate much of the state's political scene, Holland added.

In a hypothetical runoff, Nunn still holds a small margin over Perdue, 51% to 47%. But the poll's likely voter model can only estimate the November electorate, as a runoff election can draw a smaller and different crowd than the general election.