Justin Bronk: ISIS is a guerrilla army that has captured large stocks of modern weaponry.
- Justin Bronk: The number of ISIS fighters is not enough to explain the group's success
- Bronk: Most ISIS fighters are armed with Soviet-era small arms, M16/M4 pattern rifles
- ISIS makes planning any battle against them uncertain, writes Bronk
- What air power cannot do is easily degrade or neutralize ISIS's core advantages, he says
Editor's note: Justin Bronk is a research analyst in the military sciences program at the Royal United Services Institute in London. Follow him on Twitter. The views expressed are solely those of the author.
(CNN) -- It is a question that the global community is seeking to understand as the crisis in Iraq and Syria deepens. How can such a numerically small force as ISIS, which calls itself the Islamic State, have taken control of vast swathes of Syria and Iraq, and how can it hold the ground taken while simultaneously conducting multiple offensive actions in both countries?
The most recent CIA estimate in September 2014 put the total number of ISIS fighters in Iraq and Syria at between 20,000 and 31,500. But such numbers, while alarming, are not nearly enough to explain the stunning military successes the group has enjoyed.
ISIS is at heart a guerrilla army that has recently captured large stocks of modern and heavy weaponry.
READ: Opinion: Will ISIS 'weaponize' foreign fighters?
While the equipment that makes headlines is war planes, captured tanks, heavy artillery and American-made Humvees, most ISIS fighters are still armed with the same mix of Soviet-era small arms and American M16/M4 pattern rifles that their Iraqi, Kurdish and Syrian opponents rely on.
Report: ISIS has 3 warplanes 
Iraqi militias make small gains 
ISIS pushed back in Kobani 
ISIS militants stand near the site of an airstrike near the Turkey-Syria border on Thursday, October 23. The United States and several Arab nations have been bombing ISIS targets in Syria to take out the militant group's ability to command, train and resupply its fighters. 
An explosion rocks Kobani, Syria, during a reported car-bomb attack by ISIS militants on Monday, October 20. Civil war has destabilized Syria and created an opening for the militant group, which is also advancing in Iraq as it seeks to create an Islamic caliphate in the region. 
People watch the Syrian town of Kobani from a hill near the Turkey-Syria border on October 20. 
Kurdish fighters walk to positions as they fight ISIS forces in Kobani on Sunday, October 19. 
A U.S. Air Force plane flies above Kobani on Saturday, October 18. 
Heavy smoke rises in Kobani following an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition on Saturday, October 18. 
Cundi Minaz, a female Kurdish fighter, is buried in a cemetery in the southeastern Turkish town of Suruc on Tuesday, October 14. Minaz was reportedly killed during clashes with ISIS militants in nearby Kobani. 
Turkish police officers secure a basketball stadium in Suruc on October 14. Some Syrian Kurds have been held there since crossing from Syria into Turkey. Tens of thousands of people have fled Kobani, known in Arabic as Ayn al-Arab, to escape ISIS. 
Kiymet Ergun, a Syrian Kurd, celebrates in Mursitpinar, Turkey, after an airstrike by the U.S.-led coalition in Kobani on Monday, October 13. 
Smoke rises from Kobani on Sunday, October 12. 
Syrian Kurds from Kobani stand outside the grounds of a refugee camp in Suruc on Saturday, October 11. 
Alleged ISIS militants stand next to an ISIS flag atop a hill in Kobani on Monday, October 6. 
In this photo released by the U.S. Air Force on Saturday, October 4, a U.S. Navy jet is refueled in Iraqi airspace after conducting an airstrike against ISIS militants. 
A Kurdish Peshmerga soldier who was wounded in a battle with ISIS is wheeled to the Zakho Emergency Hospital in Duhuk, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 30. 
Iraqi Shiite militiamen aim their weapons during clashes with ISIS militants in Jurf al-Sakhar, Iraq, on Sunday, September 28. 
Syrian Kurds wait near a border crossing in Suruc as they wait to return to their homes in Kobani on Sunday, September 28. Tens of thousands of people have fled Kobani, known in Arabic as Ayn al-Arab, to escape ISIS. 
Syrian Kurds wait behind border fences to cross into Suruc on September 28. 
Tomahawk missiles, intended for ISIS targets in Syria, fly above the Persian Gulf after being fired by the USS Philippine Sea in this image released by the U.S. Navy on Tuesday, September 23. 
Turkish Kurds clash with Turkish security forces during a protest near Suruc on Monday, September 22. According to Time magazine, the protests were over Turkey's temporary decision to close the border with Syria. 
Syrian Kurds fleeing ISIS militants wait behind a fence in Suruc on Sunday, September 21. 
A elderly man is carried after crossing the Syria-Turkey border near Suruc on Saturday, September 20. 
A Kurdish Peshmerga fighter launches mortar shells toward ISIS militants in Zumar, Iraq, on Monday, September 15. 
An ISIS flag flies on the other side of a bridge at the front line of fighting between ISIS and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters in Rashad, Iraq, on Thursday, September 11. 
U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry reads on a flight en route to Iraq on Wednesday, September 10. Kerry traveled to the Mideast to discuss ways to bolster the stability of the new Iraqi government and combat ISIS. 
Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS militant positions from their position on the top of Mount Zardak, east of Mosul, Iraq, on Tuesday, September 9. 
An Iraqi fighter jet flies over Amerli, Iraq, on September 3. Amerli had been under siege by ISIS militants. 
Iraqi volunteer fighters celebrate breaking the Amerli siege on Monday, September 1. ISIS militants had surrounded Amerli, 70 miles north of Baquba, Iraq, since mid-June. 
Kurdish Peshmerga forces stand guard at their position in the Omar Khaled village west of Mosul on Sunday, August 24. 
Kurdish Peshmergas fight to regain control of the town of Celavle, in Iraq's Diyala province, on August 24. 
Peshmerga fighters stand guard at Mosul Dam in northern Iraq on Thursday, August 21. With the help of U.S. military airstrikes, Kurdish and Iraqi forces retook the dam from ISIS militants on August 18. A breach of the dam would have been catastrophic for millions of Iraqis who live downstream from it. 
Displaced Iraqis receive clothes from a charity at a refugee camp near Feeshkhabour, Iraq, on Tuesday, August 19. 
A fighter with Kurdish Peshmerga forces battles ISIS militants near Mosul on Monday, August 18. 
Peshmerga fighters inspect the remains of a car that reportedly belonged to ISIS militants and was targeted by a U.S. airstrike in the village of Baqufa, north of Mosul, on August 18. 
Kurdish Peshmerga fighters fire at ISIS in Khazair, Iraq, on Thursday, August 14. 
Volunteers of the Iraqi Red Crescent Society unload boxes of goods before distributing them August 14 to families who fled from ISIS. 
From the flight deck of the USS George H.W. Bush, which is in the Persian Gulf, two U.S. fighter jets take off for a mission in Iraq on Monday, August 11. U.S. President Barack Obama authorized airstrikes against Islamic militants and food drops for Iraqis who are trapped by the militants. 
Aziza Hamid, a 15-year-old Iraqi girl, cries for her father while she and some other Yazidi people are flown to safety Monday, August 11, after a dramatic rescue operation at Iraq's Mount Sinjar. A CNN crew was on the flight, which took diapers, milk, water and food to the site where as many as 70,000 people were trapped by ISIS. But only a few of them were able to fly back on the helicopter with the Iraqi Air Force and Kurdish Peshmerga fighters. 
Thousands of Yazidis are escorted to safety by Kurdish Peshmerga forces and a People's Protection Unit in Mosul on Saturday, August 9. 
Iraqi Shiite volunteers who have joined government forces to fight ISIS take part in a training session near Basra, Iraq, on Thursday, August 7. 
Thousands of Yazidi and Christian people flee Mosul on Wednesday, August 6, after the latest wave of ISIS advances. 
A Baiji oil refinery burns after an alleged ISIS attack in northern Selahaddin, Iraq, on Thursday, July 31. 
A Syrian rebel fighter lies on a stretcher at a makeshift hospital in Douma, Syria, on Wednesday, July 9. He was reportedly injured while fighting ISIS militants. 
Iraqis who fled fighting in the cities of Mosul and Tal Afar try to enter a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Wednesday, July 2. 
Peshmerga fighters check cars at the entrance of a temporary displacement camp in Khazair on Thursday, June 26. 
Kurdish Peshmerga take their positions behind a wall on the front line of the conflict with ISIS militants in Tuz Khormato, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 25. 
Peshmerga fighters clean their weapons at a base in Tuz Khormato on June 25. 
New army recruits gather in Najaf, Iraq, on Wednesday, June 18, following a call for Iraqis to take up arms against Islamic militant fighters. 
An MH-60R Sea Hawk helicopter lands on the aircraft carrier USS George H.W. Bush in the Persian Gulf on Tuesday, June 17. 
Newly recruited Iraqi volunteer fighters take part in a training session in Karbala, Iraq, on June 17. 
Members of ISIS prepare to execute soldiers from Iraq's security forces in this image, one of many reportedly posted by the militant group online. CNN cannot independently confirm the authenticity of the images. 
Iraqi men chant slogans outside of an army recruiting center to volunteer for military service Thursday, June 12, in Baghdad. 
Kurdish Peshmerga forces, along with Iraqi special forces, deploy their troops and armored vehicles outside of Kirkuk, Iraq, on June 12. 
Children stand next to a burnt vehicle during clashes between Iraqi security forces and ISIS militants in Mosul on Tuesday, June 10. 
Civilians from Mosul escape to a refugee camp near Irbil, Iraq, on June 10. Photos: The ISIS terror threat Much of the heavy equipment ISIS has at its disposal was captured during their lightning advance into Iraq, not before. It is not the core reason for their battlefield successes. However, what it does do is make planning any battle against ISIS forces an uncertain exercise because one may have to face weapons and vehicles from right across the capability spectrum.
When it comes to offensives against prepared positions, ISIS forces can certainly deploy heavy artillery, modern weapons and tanks that give it greatly enhanced capabilities and completely outgun Kurdish Peshmerga forces in particular. Unconfirmed reports have suggested that ISIS even deployed a captured M1A1 Abrams in its takeover of the Mosul Dam, before eventually being driven back by repeated U.S. airstrikes.
This is where airpower can make a difference since heavy artillery, tanks and armoured vehicles are vulnerable to airstrikes when concentrated in the open such as at the Mosul Dam and in the current offensive to take Kobani.
What air power cannot do is easily degrade or neutralize ISIS's core advantages which are strong battlefield leadership, significant tactical autonomy and aggressive tactics. Their battlefield tactics are somewhat reminiscent of the German Blitzkrieg campaigns in the early part of World War II. They use fast, well-coordinated forces with vehicle support to attack enemy weak points in strength under the cover of long range artillery and mortar fire.
A particular speciality is outflanking defensive positions and then mopping up defenders who attempt to retreat. The tactic is as much psychological as it is kinetic, and is greatly magnified by the horrendous and public brutality ISIS has systematically exhibited wherever it has gained control.
What air power cannot do is easily degrade or neutralize ISIS's core advantages
Justin Bronk
Even well-motivated and equipped troops are likely to contemplate tactical withdrawals if outflanked and in danger of being surrounded by an unknown number of fanatical mass murderers with apparently superior weaponry and tactics. Where, as in Mosul, the defenders are poorly motivated, even small ISIS attacks are capable of provoking mass panic and routs.
Kobani is an unusual operation for ISIS fighters in some respects, in that they appear committed to what has become a pitched battle in the open where they are vulnerable to airstrikes. Despite having surrounded Kobani and conducting aggressive and apparently well-coordinated infiltration attempts from multiple approaches, the sort of street-to-street "meat grinder" that Kobani has become does not play to ISIS's strengths.
Against an enemy with nowhere to retreat to and air support, a numerically limited force such as ISIS that normally relies as much on psychological effects as firepower to take ground faces a tough challenge. This is just as well since on the ground, it is only the bravery of lightly armed Kurdish fighters standing between ISIS and control of the town. Airstrikes are essential but could not keep ISIS out of the town alone.
In terms of defending the ground it has, ISIS appears to be efficient at quickly moving forces in strength to meet particular Iraqi and Peshmerga offensives. However, along most of the "frontlines" across Northern Iraq and Syria, a relatively small number of ISIS forces appear capable of pinning potential attackers in their defensive lines with a combination of reputation and sporadic mortar, sniper and machine-gun fire.
Given the disorganized state of the ground forces arrayed against them, and the limitations of airpower for rolling back such an enemy, this may well be enough to allow ISIS to maintain control of most of its newly declared Caliphate for a long while yet.
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